Groundhog end of winter and start of spring 

Outlook for end of winter and start of spring the same as my post back on January 4th: "The pattern of unseasonably warm air spells alternating with unseasonably cold snaps looks like it will continue for the remainder of winter and on into early Spring".

Here in Atlanta February averages warmer than normal about 50% of the time and cooler than normal about 50% of the time. For weather and climate purposes spring is defined as March, April and May.

Pam Knox of the State Climatologist office says there's not much relationship between winter weather and what the spring or summer do. Generally there is not much correlation between one season and the next.  There is no relationship between El Nino, La Nina and the date of last frost, so there is no predictability there. In a La Nina spring, we usually expect warm and dry conditions to continue. So as long as the La Nina continues, we have a better than usual chance of these conditions continuing especially South and East of Atlanta, with the caveat about frosts. Preliminary analog research is split on what the spring and summer will bring so more than likely more of the same alternating cold snaps with unseasonably mild spells through spring. I'll have long-range updates for the spring and summer when the picture becomes more clear.

This is from Tim's weather world in Chicago: Today is Groundhog Day so I wanted to take this opportunity to launch a preemptive strike by whacking the weasel with some facts about his forecasts.  Most meteorologists dread Groundhog Day. Bill Murray's portrayal of a television weatherman in Groundhog Day and his attitude about the day was spot on.  Woodstock Illinois is celebrating the 20th anniversary of the film crew shooting the classic comedy in and around their town.   Should be good fun but still, meteorologists and weathermen everywhere shun the hoopla surrounding February 2nd. We are expected to act as the groundhog's spokesperson and explain the archaic shenanigans of a bunch of old men with large top hats who enjoy pulling a rodent out his hole, thrusting him in the air and making proclamations about whether or not winter will continue.  This will be my 26th Groundhog Day as a broadcast meteorologist so I have heard just about every joke there is regarding the day.

Stam Zervanos, a professor emeritus of biology at Pennsylvania State University, Berks College, has crunched the numbers and they aren't very good if you are a groundhog.   He estimates the groundhog's forecast is accurate only 39% of the time.  Canadian groundhog's forecasts are even fuzzier.  According to Encyclopedia Canada, groundhogs up north are only 33% accurate. We might as well ask a giraffe for stock picks, he could probably be just as accurate.

So Punxsutawney Phil is a punk when it comes to weather forecasting.   In his defense, long range forecasting is tricky at best.   Can you recall anyone last fall calling for a warm winter with less than average snowfall?  For a more scientific explanation behind this winter's weather, check out an excellent article from ChicagoMag.com.

So if you see me or any of my meteorological brethren on Thursday please keep the Groundhog Day jokes to yourself.   If you can't resist, I may have to share some hot stock picks I heard from Jerry the giraffe.  

There is at least one good use for groundhogs.   Click here for a link to a recipe for Woodchuck Stew.