It is a rare thing to have a frost or freeze after tax deadline day in Georgia. But the American GFS model keeps showing we may have lows in the mid 30s to low 40s early next week. If it occurs with light wind and clear sky that could mean a light frost. I am not forecasting it yet but I will keep you posted in my daily 5-day forecast.

The light frost and freeze in North Georgia April 12th was a killer for crops in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota and it is expected that the freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known.

Meanwhile, all early signs point to a new weak El Nino this summer or fall, and that points to a less active hurricane season. Here is the statement from the Dr. Gray Colorado State University team:

"We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1)    Entire U.S. coastline - 42% (average for last century is 52%)
2)    U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 24% (average for last century is 31%)
3)    Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 24% (average for last century is 30%)

We predict 10 named storms, 4 being hurricanes and 2 of those being major.

The team at Weatherbell Analytics predicts 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 or 3 major.

The folks at Accuweather predict 12 named tropical systems, 5 hurricanes 2 major.

WSI predicts 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major with below-normal odds for an East Coast strike and slightly above-normal odds for a Gulf Coast hit.

Televent/DTN Weather predicts 10 nameds storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major.

Here is the statement from TSR Tropical Storm Risk: "The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2012 anticipates slightly below-norm activity. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity is forecast to be about 5-10% below the 1950-2011 long-term norm but 30% below the recent 2002-2011 10-year norm. U.S. landfalling activity is forecast to be close to the 1950-2011 norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2012. They predict 13 named storms 6 hurricanes 3 major.

Here is what the NC State University team has to say: The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be on par with the long-term average over the past 62 years and below the average activities of last 20 years. Specific forecasts are described below.
1.    Expected number of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) developing in the Atlantic Basin: 7-10 = 9 (1950-2012 average: 10.5)
2.    Expected number of hurricanes developing in the Atlantic basin: 4-7 = 6 (1950-2012 average: 6.2)
3.    Expected number of major hurricanes developing in the Atlantic basin: 1-3 = 2 (1950-2012 average: 2.7)
4. Expected number of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico: 2-4 5. Expected number of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: 1-2 6. Expected number of major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: 0-1 7.    Number of tropical cyclones making landfall along the US Gulf coast: 1-3. There is a
84% chance at least one tropical cyclone will strike the US Gulf Coast, which reduces to
51% for a hurricane and 24% for a major hurricane. 8.    There is a 66% chance at least one tropical cyclone will strike the US Southeast coast.
This probability reduces to about 32% for a hurricane, and approximately 12% for a
major hurricane. 9.    There is a 32% chance at least one tropical cyclone will make landfall along the US
Northeast coast. The chance reduces to about 12% for that storm to be a hurricane. The chance for a major hurricane to make landfall in the Northeast US coast is historically small, and is essentially unpredictable due to insufficient data sample.

Last year the number of storms was huge but the impact on the U.S. was low. Nobody can yet predict IF or WHERE they will strike land until there is an actual storm to track. The long-range forecast for tropical cyclone activity have a very good accuracy track record, but they can not provide the most valuable information about landfall. The last two seasons were very active just as forecast.