It's still there. Changes every model run, changes every day. Timing, amounts, location, precip type. The usual, par for the course.

But the system I blogged about briefly back last Saturday morning is still on the table for the coming week. So those who read it were not caught off guard that there is a threat in the week ahead and you didn't have to wait until the end of the week to learn of the possibility.

Lets say Tuesday give or take a day, or could be strung out IN SOME FORM for 3 days. As long time readers know, I don't model forecast so I dont blog or forecast based on every new model run. The various equations giveth and taketh away. Dozens of models with runs up to 4 times per day. Everyone showing something different and changing every day and every run. There is no point in looking at model X at a given time and saying "OMG look it shows X for Atlanta". Because 24 hours before you could have said of the same model "OMG look it shows 0 for Atlanta".

I'll say that experience tells me that when the pattern is favorable as it is and has been, and the models show something (the usual give or take-on and off aside) for a week or two, then there almost always IS something. In other words, the LEAST likely outcome is that NO storm ever develops and we just get quiet uneventful weather the next 7 days. On some models its a big deal on some its more a fizzle.

But do I buy into any one model or even a handful this far out in this complex a pattern (multi jet stream--interaction dependent--with multiple short-wave disturbances within each jet branch, and the main players not yet well in the obs measuring network ? I hope you know that is a rhetorical question, the answer is NO. NOBODY yet knows. The model output runs the gamut as per the norm this far in advance.  Right now I favor a mixed bag and/or changeover to rain then back toward snow at the end scenario. But that is purposely vague and generic and that's as of the moment I type this, I will no doubt change in the days ahead.

Between the model flip flops and Atlanta hysteria (news people and the general public) my approach is always to start conservative, and try to work toward specifics the closer we get to the actual event if there is to be one. Forecasting is more than model watching, it is an ONGOING "P R O C E S S" in which you look for data and model consensus matched with climatology and clues from past and recent model performance. I seek to CONVERGE upon a forecast idea over the course of time, usually somewhere in between the extremes that are projected by numerical prediction models and the wishcasting of snow lovers or haters.

Above all we need to remember, and sometimes us forecasters forget to our regret... what you see printed out on a weather map (paper or screen) is a model SIMULATION of the atmosphere, not the REAL weather. They are the best tools we have, but they are only tools and they sometimes let us down. I've been in the game long enough to have seen way too many "looks perfect" on paper turn into WHAT THE fx@##$%^^ happened?

We need to calm down, take a deep breath, exhale. Slow and steady wins the race. We cant change the models or the weather, we can just take what comes and we will all live, and another day will dawn no matter what happens in the end, if forecasts change or stay the same, get it right or wrong. Life is short, lets enjoy rather than be up tight. Hope this is not coming across as snotty as it might, typing doesn't allow for tone to be clear. Only trying to be instructive on why I do and don't do things.

In short, don't model worship. Don't worship me, don't worship the models. 

As always, even if I don't blog here, I update every day-- often many times a day on the radio (including weekends)-- and in the forecast slot for the 5-day forecast:

It's the "GET THE 5-DAY FORECAST" link right on the homepage. (right hand corner under WSB 24-HOUR WEATHER CENTER)

IT will tell you what I am forecasting at that moment even withOUT a blog post.

Click on it or don't-- but do not look here and then complain I am not updating when in fact I am, as I have been the past 7 days-- even with out blogging here. Thank you.