See Atlanta Weather Examiner for model maps.

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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 5:19 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 6, 2011

The models "largely" agree on winter storm 

By Kirk Mellish

11AM edit: See Atlanta Weather Examiner for model maps.

ADDED 8 Friday morning:  Just a degree or two F can spell the difference between snow, all ice or just rain sometimes over just a 25-50 mile area.  I'll re-post the met 101 lesson on this from last year later today if I get a chance.  PREVIOUS:

However, model consensus is no guarantor. The Christmas night storm some models a couple days out had areas north of Macon,Ga getting 6-10 inches of snow they got a sloppy inch after rain.  I've been doing this for almost 35 years and I've seen 100% agreement by forecasters and models turn to poop (nada) in less than 12 hours. Perspective and calm are helpful in life :) I know politics and the media have turned this into a "gotcha" society with meanness and a lack of civility everywhere. But lets show some Christian Charity and good old fashion American kindness and benefit of the doubt to people, me you everybody. If need be I will shut down this blog or require registration and verification of identity so cowards can't hide behind web anonymity.

Lets face it, if weather forecasting was easy everyone would do it and everyone would always be right. Yogi Berra is said to have said: "making predictions is hard, especially about the future". Just look at elections, the NFL this year or the stock market the past two years.

But

Unless something radical changes in the numerical equations output, which is possible because the storm is not yet into the data sampling network, some GA folk get out of school Monday. POSSIBLY a lot of folks.

Everyone from Macon north is in the game. Yes, impressive amounts of snow and/or ice are shown by pretty much all models. But again I warn, the parent system is still in the Pacific, there will be interaction with a separate northern jet branch (which models handle poorly), and the surface low does not yet exist except as a figment of the models "imagination".

Therefore you would have to be a fool to needlessly get bogged down in numbers and locations which will just have to be changed later. I may not have time to blog any further on this so be sure and listen to AM 750 and yes NOW 95.5 FM or click on the forecast link that gives my forecast.

 
 

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