I think the weather service office in Birmingham put the next winter weather threat as well as it can be stated, so I'll post it here. I am sure we all see the same things the models-- are open sourced for all to see, they show what they show and there's only one way to describe it. But we all know they will change over and over again so it's too soon to put too much stock in any one model solution.

NWS Alabama:
 

"THE POTENTIAL BIG EVENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD COMES OVER THE
WEEKEND. JUST AS WITH THE CHRISTMAS SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME WITH THE DETAILS CONCERNING A POTENTIAL GULF LOW. HERE
IS WHERE THE 05/00Z RUNS STAND:

THE GFS MOVES THE SURFACE LOW WELL OUT INTO THE GULF AND IS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT PRECIPITATION BECOMES A QUESTION. THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW JUST OFF THE AL AND NWFL SHORELINE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT SCENARIO WOULD MEAN NO QUESTION ON MEASURABLE
PRECIP -- THE QUESTION BECOMES PRECIP TYPE. ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS YORK...CLANTON...
LAFAYETTE. THE GEM IS STRONGER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD SLIDE THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST MORE
INTO THE RAIN CATEGORY.

AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE ECMWFS TRACK RECORD WITH THE PREVIOUS
GULF LOW SYSTEM...AND POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IF IT WERE TO
VERIFY (GRANTED...STILL A BIG IF)...I THINK IT IS PRUDENT TO HAVE
THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST. AND THIS JUST IN -- THE 06Z
GFS JUST CAME IN WITH A MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW
TRACK...ALTHOUGH A BIT FASTER THE OTHER MODELS.

WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS "RAIN OR SNOW" TO INDICATE THE
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPE. THERES BOUND TO BE LOTS MORE MODEL
FLIP FLOPS...AND PROBABLY A FEW MORE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS IN THE COMING DAYS."

I do note the usual model waffling, in fact some of the models have changed low pressure track by over 400 miles from just one run to the next.

It is not unusual to see model mayhem in this type of pattern. The equations work best when the weather patterns are at least somewhat "normal" or at least very similar to many past patterns for the time of year. The more the atmosphere varies off the beaten path the more the algorithms will struggle.

This is such a time what with the abnormal retrograding Greenland Block -NAO, the dual jet streams and the dual blocking against the La Nina backdrop there is a lot of chaos in the northern hemisphere flow. And the models, especially the GFS also struggles when either phasing or interaction is concerned between a northern branch feature and a southern branch feature. And this is the case with the threats late this weekend and later in the 10-15 day ahead time frame.

Unfortunately for us, it is just this type of dual jet feature interaction that affects the Southeast the most when it comes to CAD events (shallow cold air damning) and gulf/East coast lows that impact precip amounts and type here in GA and adjacent states.

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