Here in the Southeast, for all intents and purposes winter is over. Of course we will still get our usual normal cold snaps into April even as temperatures over the long-haul of the next 60-90 days average near-normal with below-normal precipitation. But if the NAO should tank again as the MJO forecast quadrant change suggests we will have to watch out. Also, don't get lulled into thinking there will be NO more winter weather of any kind as we are still only in Mid February, no guarantees can be made this early that we will just coast smoothly into May from here, as that rarely happens even in more normal winters.
But with the SE ridge trying to be stubborn like it is supposed to be in a La Nina winter, the odds of appreciable snow are very low, while a small window still exists for ice, although not probable.
The March through May period looks to have temperatures average near-normal to a little warmer than normal with precipitation averaging a little below-normal. Remember that is the average of the 90-day period not every day or every week or every month but the sum of the whole. La Nina always gives rise to concern for the severe weather season. Last year I correctly forecast below average severe weather particularly tornadoes. This year looks to have a more active tornado season than last year, especially April and early May as it looks now. Some analogs also suggest some problems from heavy rain in April in an otherwise relatively dry spring. Of course, a more active season compared to last years very quiet season would not be hard to achieve. I am not sure yet if it will also be more active than normal but that is a concern for the mid-south.
Research papers suggest the La Nina enhanced tornado season correlation is weaker for Georgia but substantial for states just to our North and West.
The latest suite of computer models for the Pacific Ocean La Nina suggest the La Nina will fade this spring as about half of them normally do. This La Nina is already weakening and NOAA gives it a 50% chance of being gone by June, but a reversal to El Nino is NOT expected at this time.
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