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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 7:01 a.m. Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2011

On and off 

By Kirk Mellish

Our internet connectivity problems continue, so listen to the radio until we get this fixed. Of course, we are a radio station and I am a radio meteorologist so you should be doing that anyway as I update on-air first and on the web last even when things are working right.

Gonna get to it without detail lest we lose this connection again. Models are having problems resoulving numerous bundles of short-wave energy in a split jet stream pattern in a broader pattern change across North America which will lead to a big time thaw and extended warm spell next week and possibly a bit beyond. For example 5 days ago the Euro had a major snowstorm in the SE. Today the two main American models show the chance of precip tomorrow night thursday morning at GFS 20% (80% chance of staying dry) OR NAM 85% (15% chance of staying dry).

As of now I am thinking rain/sleet/snow mix changes to light snow, with a dusting or less south suburbs and a half to one inch elsewhere, some isolated spot may get 2. Because of model mayhem these are very preliminary numbers, as anything from greter amounts to just cloudy skies and meaningless drizzle/flurries are options still on the table.