7 out of 8 good so far this winter. What's interesting is the NAM, (North American Mesoscale) model which has finer resolution supposedly to help with such things as precip type and amount, has in several threats this season performed more poorly than the GFS (Global Forecast Model). Now I do note that they put some "tweaks" into the model in the summer and fall to improve the performance of the GFS. Unless it's coincidence it seems to have helped.
 
But the GFS still struggles compared to other global models, but at least so far this winter it's not been as bad as in past years.

As suspected the models did not handle the shallow cold dry air well and so did not account for the wet-bulb effect. But since we knew about that model weakness were able to call it anyway, with the flip to rain once saturation of the boundary level occurred and evaporative cooling was replaced by latent heat release physics. Here is the report from the NWS Atlanta office:
Wintry Mix Across Portions of North Georgia
 February 3, 2011
 
The

low pressure system that brought wintry weather to much of the United States Wednesday into Thursday dragged a cold front into the Southeast on Thursday, stalling the front across the area. A second system developing in Texas allowed significant moisture to move into the Southeast, while a series of upper level disturbances moved across the area. The warm, moist air flowed over the surface cool air, allowing some of the precipitation to fall as a wintry mix across portions of North Georgia on Thursday. The surface cold layer was not quite cold enough to sustain prolonged freezing or frozen precipitation, but it was just enough that some minor accumulations of snow and sleet were reported, mainly north and west of the Metro area. A light glaze of freezing rain was reported generally in and south of the Metro area. Very few travel problems were noted, except for on a few bridges and overpasses. Total accumulations may be found on the image below or in the Public Information Statement.

Total Snow, Sleet and Ice Accumulation

Now that we closed the books on the first two months of winter, how does this season compare with last winter? Last winter by the end of January Atlanta had 44 days with below-normal temperature, this year 39 days have been colder than normal. Snow-wise, this year to date officially 5.8 inches of snow. Last year at this point only 0.6 of an inch (at Hartsfield).

As I've been blogging since Feb 2nd there are more winter weather POTENTIALS down the pike and more polar air before we flip to another warm spell.

To see what I am forecasting the next 5 days you go to the homepage and click on the 5-day forecast at wsbradio.com anytime of day every day of the week. The very same thing is right here on the very same page you are reading whenever you read my blog, it's in the upper right hand corner. It looks like this in case you have IQ or eyesight problems:

WSB 24-Hour Weather Center
Get the 5-day Forecast .