Meteorology Log on hurricane Irene:

First strike Cape Lookout NC Saturday Cedar Island max wind gust of 115mph, second landfall of the eye Sunday morning just north of Atlantic City NJ then a 3^rd landfall over NYC and Long Island. Top wind gust at La Guardia was 67mph with a 91mph gust on central Long Island. Storm surge at Battery Park was 4 feet overtopping the sea wall in several spots; water levels at The Battery were the 6^th highest on record. The areal extent of flooding, downed trees and power loss from Irene looks to outstrip most if not all previous hurricanes to hit the U.S. Rainfall from the storm from SC to Maine averaged 5 to 10 inches with some 12-15 inch reports. Aurora NC reported 19 inches:

115mph  Cedar Island, NC

98mph    Jacksonville, NC

80mph    Hatteras, NC

78mph    Morehead City, NC

67mph    Cape Lookout, NC

63mph    South Nags Head, NC

Historically speaking climate data indicates the region from NJ to New England is long overdue for a hit by a strong hurricane, because its very rare to go more than 15 years without a big one.  On average, going back to the nations earliest settlements, the return period is on the order of once every 8 years.

The most recent hurricanes in that area were Gloria in 1985 hit Long Island NY as a Cat 1, and Bob made landfall in RI as a Cat 2.  Before that hurricane Donna in 1960 and Hazel in 1954.

Going back to 1851, there have been only 5 hurricanes whose centers of circulation have passed within 75 miles of New York City. The last hurricane within that distance from New York City was Hurricane Gloria 26 years ago.  Irene is only the 2^nd hurricane to hit NJ since 1851.

The last hurricane to cross the New Jersey coast was in 1903! The last destructive hurricane in the Garden State was the Great Hurricane of 1944 (67 years ago).

**a hurricane is like a severe thunderstorm that goes on for 12 hours instead of the usual 30 minutes** or in Irenes case like a 100 mile wide EF-0 tornado.

Similarly, only 10 hurricanes since 1851 have passed within 75 miles of Boston. The most recent was almost exactly 20 years ago: Hurricane Bob.

When the PDO is cold and AMO warm and La Nina is present, a northeast hit is almost a sure bet. It seems during quieter solar cycles landfalls near New York City are more likely perhaps by happenstance like1821, 1893. Cold epochs are not immune. We had the Great Colonial hurricane a CAT 4 event that hit both the new Jamestown Colony in Virginia and the Massachusetts and Plymouth Colony in 1635 during the Little Ice Age. In the Mini Ice age of the early 1800s there were actually 6 storms between 1815 and 1821 to affect the New York area.

GEORGIA last direct hit hurricane at Savannah Cat 3 in 1893.

I.K.E integrated kinetic energy in a storm is more important than just the strongest wind that can be found somewhere in it. Therefore the Simpson-Safir hurricane category scale based on max wind speed alone can be misleading as to how big a storm is, analogy:  a mopped can go 60 mph, but so can an 18-wheeler. The difference between getting hit by one vs. the other is the mass that is moving at a given speed. Rainfall flooding and storm surge flooding are often more significant than wind damage in hurricanes because the max wind reported is confined to a small area normally near the eye with lower wind speeds more common throughout the rest of a tropical storm or hurricane. The media concentrates too much on the strongest wind near the center of these storms. A scale is needed that factors in the I.K.E. of a storm including its flood potential. It’s also important to remember that these tropical systems are all different no two are alike in shape size or structure, even if they have the same category rating! Irene for example had its wind field very randomly dispersed, often away from the center of the storm. Irene may be the only storm in history with central pressure so low and wind speeds not matching, so we had CAT 1 to tropical storm wind in NYC with a solid CAT 3 pressure, that’s historic and will have researchers looking for answers.

As I’ve pointed out in the past, while track forecasts are very good, forecasts for intensity of these storms is very poor. They often weaken or strengthen significantly differently from forecaster expectations.

Warning time needed for safe evacuation is also a huge factor. Officials simply can not wait until until hours or a day before a storm may hit before evacuations and other costly preparations are made because population growth has outpaced road construction infrastructure to safely get people out or to safe shelters. The accuracy of forecasting how strong a storm will be at a given place is JUST NOT THERE, and even the track and speed predictions can be off, so out of an abundance of caution for public safety OVER WARNING is unavoidable until forecasting advances. That's nobodys fault, it's just a fact of life.

Continue reading on Examiner.comHurricane Irene historic - Atlanta Weather | Examiner.com

Hurricanes by state:

1. Florida, with 113 hurricanes, 37 of them major storms and two that reached Category 5 status (the strongest and most destructive of hurricanes).

2. Texas, with 60 total hurricanes, 19 of them major. The majority (23) were Category 1 storms, and none were Category 5.

3. Louisiana, with 52 total hurricanes, 20 of them major. One of those storms was a Category 5, and four were Category 4 storms.

4. North Carolina, with 50 total hurricanes, 12 of them major storms. No Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall in North Carolina, but there has been one Category 4 storm.

5. South Carolina with 30 hurricanes, six of them major. Two Category 4 hurricanes have made landfall on the South Carolina coast.

Safir Simpson Scale 1-5:

1 74-95 MPH 980-994mb

2 96-110 965-979

3 111-130 945-965

4 131-155 920-944

5 over 156 less than 920mb