Strangely enough, it has been my experience in the forecasting business, that the worst weather mother nature has to offer, isolated or widespread, is often a surprise. Whereas, lesser extreme weather happens when something really bad was expected. For example, many times (but certainly not always) a marginal or run-of-the-mill severe weather potential turns really nasty. Yet an anticipated moderate to extreme severe weather potential goes largely unrealized. The same is true with the PDS tornado watch. "Particularly dangerous situation". This is "enhanced language" aimed to get maximum public and media attention and is rarely used.

Of course, the problem is, nobody on earth knows in advance when this will be the case and when it will not be. God only knows. We mere mortals just give it our best shot. So apply the old Boy Scout motto and BE PREPARED. Better safe than sorry, plan for the worst hope for the best etc.

Meteorologists issue weather forecasts based largely on "synoptic charts" and the synoptic weather set-up. You can google it. Much of actual "sensible" weather occurs at the meso-scale or microscale. This is certainly true of where severe storms and/or tornadoes will occur. We can see on our charts and computer progs that the large-scale "synoptic" pattern is favorable. But what will determine who gets slammed and who gets off lucky can only be determined hours in advance-- and sometimes not even then or at all.

The synoptic pattern projected to occur in much of the South and Southeast states late Wednesday into Thursday is almost "text book" for heavy rain, dangerous destructive lightning, large hail, damaging straight-line winds and some tornadoes, including large long-lived, long-track ones (EF-2 to EF-5). At least on paper this is a potentially dangerous and life-threatening situation. In Georgia AS OF NOW it looks like a 40 to 50% chance of a tornado somewhere in the North third to half of Georgia, but this could go up or down.

Maybe Atlanta gets lucky again, and as current indications are, the worst is to our North and to our West. But things can change after I write this,  and I won't be able to update here because-- I will update on the radio all day tomorrow.

NOW is the time, to review safety tips and have a plan. Know that a WATCH means watch out, conditions are favorable and may lead to a warning in the future. Be prepared to move to a place of safety if a warning is issued, but don't wait for a warning if you see or hear threatening conditions (take cover on your own) as a warning may not be issued in time. A WARNING MEANS, take cover now severe weather imminent. It means YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED, take action now to protect life and property.

Remember, damaging winds and hail and tornadoes can and SOMETIMES DO occur with little or no advanced warning. A watch is a good time to gather the family close to home or stay home and avoid travel. A warning does not mean go stand in the garage or on the porch or at the window waiting to see if you hear or see it. A warning means do all the OPPOSITE of those things to protect your arse. DO NOT WAIT TO HEAR SIRENS. Tornado sirens do not always work and are only intended for people outside near the siren who don't have a radio to get the warning. The siren sound does not always carry far. DO NOT try to out run a tornado in a car and do not seek shelter under an overpass.

Mobile homes, double-wides, and modular homes are all unsafe and must be abandoned in a tornado warning. Yes, you really are safer in a ditch. For more safety tips: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/safety.html

Wind shear and rotating supercell thunderstorms Photo: accu weather graphic