Summer does not want to give up this year from Arizona to the East Coast and drought
conditions are expanding across much of the Southeast United States, including Georgia.
If maximum temperatures (day time highs) hit 90 or above as forecast for the next three
days in Atlanta, then this year will tie with 1954 for the most 90 degree days in a
calendar year with 82 days of 90+ and would be second only to 1980 with 90 days.
Many are tired of summer and ready for fall weather and also want rain. The autumn weather
outlook is for above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall. However, it could take
only one big rainstorm from a tropical system to change that situation. We would hate to
end a drought with flooding.
We will have to monitor just such a possibility, albeit remote for now, in the medium
range forecast beyond 9 days from now. Note the 500mb jet stream flow pattern projected
by the GFS model showing a weakness (upper level troffing) over the Southeastern U.S. This
might provide an avenue for the tropics as we make the run for October.
All areas from Louisiana to the Carolinas but with the Central to Eastern Gulf favored by
most of the global equations and their ensemble variants. If a front comes down at the
same time marked cooling could accompany a heavy rain threat for parts of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic states if a future "Lisa" does spin-up. Of course it's much too soon to make any specific rain forecasts for a non existent storm. The next 10 days still look mostly dry.