The pioneers in the field, the "Dr. Gray" team at Colorado State University say this could be "one hell of a season". They expect to update their forecast June 2nd. NOAA predicts 19 named systems, 11 hurricanes, 5 major. NOAA is just one of many sources of hurricane season forecasts. Last year they predicted the season would be "near-normal" with 12, 6 and 2.

Consider these numbers for some perspective. Since 1950 the average number of named storms per season has been 10, with 6 becoming hurricanes, and 2 or 3 of those becoming major intense hurricanes. The most recent decade has seen an average of 16, 8 and 5. What about last season? It was quieter than normal as predicted, with 9 named systems, 3 hurricanes, 2 major. It was the lowest number season since 1997. (BTW my final forecast last year was 10, 6, and 2)

In a typical year, 2 or 3 tropical systems with a name will hit the United States coastline, with 1 being a hurricane in a typical year based on long-term statistics.

There are times when the total number of named storms is very high making for an active season, YET the impact on land in general or just on the U.S. may be small. There have also been years where the total number of named systems is unremarkable or even below normal, YET the storms that do form all seem to find land or have a big impact on the U.S. So clearly the total NUMBER of named systems does not tell the whole story. While seasonal forecasts of the total number of storms have shown accuracy skill over the past 10-20 years, like all forecasts of the future some still fail as it's a relatively new field.  Also, no one has yet come up with a proven means of predicting ahead of the season where storms will hit or even what part of coasts will be impacted, although some are attempting to do so and progress is being made on that front.

Quite a number of factors which influence seasonal activity point to an above normal season this year. For example, tropical Atlantic Ocean temps are at levels normally seen in July, warmer at this time of year than the freakishly active season of 2005, the year of Rita and Katrina. While not a guarantor of a bad season, this does sound alarm bells for the gas and oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico, particularly in view of the ongoing oil spill and environmental disaster unfolding in the Gulf, and already a threat to the economy of Gulf coastal communities and states. This also raises concern for further human tragedy in the recovery of Haiti from the earthquake with the threat of flooding and mudslides in Haiti from any storms that hit that area.

Most forecasters feel they may have to raise there current forecasts by September.  The UKMET office has come on board with expecting an above-normal season, but they will not issue a number until next month.

Here is my current consensus forecast for the 2010 tropical storm and hurricane season in the Atlantic and Caribbean:

16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major or intense hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher) I will update the outlook as needed in the months ahead.