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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 5:54 p.m. Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Forecasting progress slow but steady 

By Kirk Mellish

As computer processing and memory grows in power, that computing power helps generate weather forecasting progress. 
 

Supercomputers crunch data into more accurate weather predictions at 70 trillion mathematical calculations per second. Hundreds of electronic sensors around the country transmit atmospheric measurements, like temperature and pressure, to supercomputers in Washington, D.C. Applying the laws of physics, those high-powered computers then send data and images to me and other meteorologists, projecting how storm fronts and jet streams would develop in the coming days.

Using 1-3 dozen models generated from computers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Korea, Canada and Europe, scientists piece together their five and seven-day weather forecasts.

Dr. Louis Uccellini, director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, attempted to put the current computing power into perspective: If everyone in the United States were doing a calculation per second, it would take them about 2 1/2 days to do the amount of work these computers can do in one second, he said.

"It is one of the top intellectual achievements of the 20th century," Uccellini said. "Just 45 years ago, there was no credibility for specific weather forecasts of extreme events beyond 24 hours."

In the 1960s, general weather forecasting stretched only about two days into the future. Weather forecasting has progressed at about a day a decade, Uccellini said. Today's seven-day forecasts are about as accurate as five-day forecasts in the mid-1990s, he said. The 3-5 day forecast is about as accurate as a two-day forecast in the 1960s.


TORNADO CHASERS LIVE LINK. Here is a link you might enjoy to one of my boy-hood weather heroes from Chicago as he and others storm chase this week. Click on chase truck icon.  OR here for Chaser vid.