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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 11:09 a.m. Sunday, May 2, 2010

Rain and storms threaten 

By Kirk Mellish

Here are some quick ESTIMATES. Most of us stay dry during the daylight hours today, Sunday.

36 Hour rainfall total estimates AVERAGE 2-4 inches.  If some location or locations get unlucky enough to be under periodic thunderstorms, or if echo training occurs (heavy storms repeat over and over like a train track) then exorbitant rainfall amounts could occur with serious flooding. This can only be monitored hour by hour with radar and satellite.

Timing ESTIMATES: the main window is open from 9:30 tonight to 6pm tomorrow, but diminishing after 2pm. Severe weather may also occur with the heavy rain, ESTIMATED main window for severe is Midnight to 11 am.  Damaging winds and an isolated tornado are possible. There are at least a few negative factors which may limit severe weather. The upper level jet stream is minimal in strength, upper-air temps are fairly warm, CAPE is routine, and vertical profiles are saturated. Still, there is a lot of low-level wind shear, solid helicity, and low lifted condensation levels. The gist, the severe threat appears minimal-modest and routine at this point, the flood threat greater. Obviously things can change. Updates on the radio.