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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 10:55 a.m. Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Snow and ice prove costly in Georgia this winter 

By Kirk Mellish

Costly winter for cities and states like Atlanta, Georgia

Costly winter for cities and states like Atlanta, Georgia
Stock photo

Cities and states across the country are having budget woes worsened by Old Man Winter. Atlanta has had 3 snow/ice systems of note this season compared to many winters that go with nary a flake.

After being swamped with snow just a few weeks ago, the Northeast got clobbered by the storm dubbed the "Snowicane,"  caused powerful winds, immobilizing snow, whiteouts, horizontal rain and flooding and beach erosion. Now yet another wind rain and snow making is hitting the region from the Carolina's Northward today. Chicago is having a rare 52 inch plus winter 94% above-normal! Not only does this kind of extreme weather cause hazardous driving conditions, it also cost millions of dollars in snow removal costs and other damages.

In New York, for example, it costs the city an estimated $1 million per inch to plow the snow. And Planalytics, a Pennsylvania based firm that specializes in business-related weather forecasting, estimates the wintry messes in February topped $100 million a day during the worst weather when you add up overtime expenses, reduced productivity and lost sales. Many cities across the country have used up their snow-removal budgets and then some. Atlanta has had 5 inches of snow compared to the 30-year average of 2 inches. Georgia DOT is having to dig into road maintenance funds to cover salting and sanding operations with 4-8 inches having fallen in the North Georgia Mountains with yesterdays storm, and 1-4 inches fell from the Airport to the North Suburbs. Officially at Hartsfield Airport 5.3 inches of snow has fallen this season and the state Department of Transportation has spent almost 5 million dollars fighting snow and ice this winter. That is about a million per inch.

But while some companies are flaking out when it snows, some stocks in particular are poised to cash in big-time because of this winter's extreme weather and may cash-in on the clean-up and repair. Old man winter's stock is sure up this year, maybe some others will follow.

Atlanta based Home Depot (HD) has about 2,300 retail stores in the U.S., and is likely to be the first destination for homeowners looking to fix burst pipes, mend fallen gutters or tend to other havoc inflicted by Old Man Winter.

HD made a splash recently with a fantastic Q4 earnings report. A 1.2% jump in same-store sales for the period helped the company trounce Wall Street estimates of 17 cents per share with actual profits of 24 cents per share. Do-it-yourself repairs in the wake of the winter storms are sure to pad Home Depot's bottom line for the current quarter.

As one of North America's largest roofing materials distributors, Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) operates 175 branches throughout the U.S. and Canada. Besides roofing products, the company also manufactures related materials, such as siding, windows and waterproofing systems -- products that are sure to be in high demand after the current round of winter weather.

In its fiscal first-quarter earnings report released in February, BECN did show signs of tough times with a 20% decline in sales year-over-year. However, residential roofing sales were up against strong comparisons to the previous year where Hurricane Ike literally drove sales through the roof in Texas. This shows how weather patterns can affect Beacon Roofing's results, so the stock should cash in after the storms of February.

Compass Minerals (CMP) is a leading chemical company that specializes in fertilizers and salts. While it's clearly not time to be watering the garden, Kansas-based CMP is seeing brisk business from its deicing and salt products thanks to the wintry weather.

Compass has grown its earnings per share dramatically across the last few quarters and is looking to share more of those profits with shareholders. On Feb. 8, CMP raised its quarterly dividend by 10% 39 cents per share, payable March 15 to shareholders of record as of March 1. This stock is going strong right now and should see continued success from the winter weather.

Ford (F) may not sound like a winter-weather stock, but the company makes internal combustion engines for far more than just Mustangs and F-150s. The fact is that Ford remains one of the largest engine suppliers for top privately held generator companies like Generac and Kohler.

Ford is a great stock to buy right now for a number of reasons -- it's gobbling up market share from bankrupt GM and Chrysler and is benefiting from uncertainty over Toyota (TM) vehicles in the wake of the recent recalls. The generator angle provides just one more reason to like Ford stock right now.