At the end of this story is a table that provides the probability of at least some oil or tar balls reaching specific locations, the probabilities can change dramatically based on the strength and path of a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico.

Pieces of the Gulf oil slick are breaking off and beginning to enter the loop current, possibility propelling tar balls towards beaches in the Bahamas and South Florida over the next several weeks.

Freeport and Grand Bahama Island, even Nassau, could be impacted by drifting oil pieces caught in the Gulf Stream current, which flows around the tip of Florida and passes along the western end of the Bahamas.

Assuming oil continues to spew from the broken well various models suggest oil slick pieces cutting under the Florida Keys and heading towards Florida's east coast by early next week. Meteorologists foresee oil passing under Key West, Fla., possibly washing upon shores in Miami, and then heading north to Freeport, Bahamas.

A trajectory could also place oil pieces further south, interacting with beaches along Havana, Cuba and then swinging wide through Grand Bahama Island.

The loop current exists as part of the Gulf Stream, which flows north between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, and continues to flow north into the Gulf of Mexico before looping to the south and then east through the Florida Straits. The danger of oil becoming wrapped in the loop current is the current's Gulf Stream direction, which could carry oil, mostly in the form of tar balls, swiftly up the Atlantic Seaboard.

 Pieces of the oil slick located in the central Gulf are breaking off and beginning to enter the loop current. Models show drifting pieces of oil cutting under Key West, Fla.

There is the possibility that drifting pieces of oil could get swept up in the Gulf Stream and round the tip of the Florida Peninsula. Once in the Gulf Stream, oil drifters could be swept toward the Atlantic with the western end of the Bahamas the most vulnerable. Oil in the form of tar balls could wash up along the beaches of popular tourist destinations of Grand Bahama Island and Nassau.

The danger of oil becoming wrapped in the loop current is the current's Gulf Stream direction, which could carry oil, mostly in the form of tar balls, swiftly up the Atlantic Seaboard.

It appears that eddies, or warm water tracks that break off the loop current and flow westward, have subsided somewhat. Most of the oil previously caught in the loop current was carried westward through the Gulf by the warm water eddies, and this pattern is set to shift.

The weather in the Gulf will remain warm and humid, with a shift in winds from the north-northeast earlier this week to a continuous southerly flow through the week's end. This wind shift brings a renewed threat for tar balls showing up along Florida Panhandle beaches.

Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday This will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, so it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Pensacola. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. 

A few tar balls have been reported along northwestern Florida's Emerald Coast. However, there are currently no beach closings in this region.

The Gulf Island beaches are also open, with pieces of oil showing up over the weekend at Horn and Petit Bois islands, as well as at Fort Pickens and Satna Rosa.

Orange Beach, Ala. currently has a swimming advisory put into place by the Alabama State Department of Public Heath. Grand Isle, La. has closed its public beaches.

People should avoid swimming in oil impacted areas, as the odor alone can cause respiratory problems. Swallowing water infused with oil can also cause nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

FORECAST ODDS OF OIL OR TAR BALLS:

Location          7 Days 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 120 Days

Grand Isle, La. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Gulfport, Miss. 60% 75% 80% 85% 90%
Mobile Bay, Ala. 60% 80% 85% 90% 90%

Florida Coast and Bahamas
Pensacola, Fla. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Tampa, Fla. 5% 25% 35% 40% 45%
Key West, Fla. 8% 15% 25% 35% 40%
Miami Beach, Fla. 5% 5% 5% 10% 15%
Daytona Beach, Fla. 1% 2% 2% 3% 5%
Jacksonville, Fla. 1% 1% 1% 2% 3%
Freeport 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

East Coast
Charleston, S.C. 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%
Myrtle Beach, S.C. 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%
Cape Hatteras, N.C. 0% 0% 0% 2% 3%
Norfolk, Va. 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%
Ocean City, Md. 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Atlantic City, N.J. 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Montauk Long Island, N.Y. 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Cape Cod, Mass. 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%