The "El Nino split-flow and pineapple express" jet stream pattern continues. Now models are showing some shifts in the North American flow with a projected displaced PV Polar Vortex over SE Canada as a very strong SW short-wave comes East from Southern CA in the STJ Sub-tropical jet stream. This looks like it will initiate cyclogenesis (surface low formation) somewhere from Arkansas to the Texas Gulf Coast signaling a POTENTIAL  "Miller A" type storm track system (Southern stream Gulf low).  These are the types that CAN turn into Nor'Easter snowstorms for the Middle Atlantic States and parts of New England, SOMETIMES including parts of the Northern Gulf States and inland Southeast states.  As always the devil is in the details and just pointing to a model and saying it shows this or that so that's the forecast doesn't work, especially since there are around 27 models that can be looked at. Remember, it's METEOROLOGY not model - ology.  ;)

Models are not the weather, but tools used as guidance because they numerically simulate the atmosphere. That's why the atmospheric physics dept of universities teach not just model printouts, but how to analyze the real atmosphere and they teach the biases, strengths and weakness of various models in different patterns. By the way if you're interested both UGA and GA Tech both have meteorology programs.

The "event" is still at least 5 days away so obviously a lot can and will change. At this stage the American GFS has been the most aggressive in suggesting a snow or ice threat of North AL and GA from Atlanta northward.  I am not following it at this time instead going with a blend of the GFS with a suite of other models I like. For the moment the best chance for significant snow and ice looks to be KY, TN, NC, VA with adjacent states getting lesser amounts on the edges including GA. The area from TX-OK Pan Handle to NJ looks to get (as of 5pm Mon.) 3-6 and locally 12 inches of snow.  If I have to change my mind with later data I will.  At any rate with the expected pattern shift I've been talking about for weeks now this will probably be just the first of several opportunities for winter mischief as we head into and through February. The outlook for the next 30-60 days is for temps to average below-normal with precipitation near-normal to a little above on average. Viable analog years for the rest of winter include 1900, 1958, 1964, 1966, 1967, 1973, 1977, 2003, 2007.

My 5 day forecast will be on-line and on the radio every day as always.

Does fog and thunder predict snow?

Let me post a copy from my colleague Greg Fishels column from WRAL in North Carolina since I get these same "Old Wives Tale" questions all the time. I'd bet good money both of these would have a high fail rate if tested scientifically. (Teachers this would be a great science fair project). It reminds me of the folklore surrounding the stock market based on who wins the Superbowl or World Series or what happens to stocks in January as a predictor for the year ahead. Its human nature to look for patterns and easy answers even where they don't exist. In fact scientists tell us the human brain is wired that way!

Question: My grandmother always said "10 days after thunder in winter, it will snow" is she correct?  -- Suzanne (my note: I 've heard it stated as 8 days, and I've heard it stated as only applying to January, so even the old sayings cant agree)

Question: How many fogs were in August the old saying is that's how many snows there will be in winter?  -- Floyce

Answer:

It's pretty difficult to imagine any way in which the number of fogs in August would have any predictive value regarding snow events in the winter, apart from the fact that around here we typically have a few notable fogs in August and a few notable snows in winter, so over time the numbers could be similar. Also, one has to ask how dense the fog has to be to "count" as a "fog," (visibility under 3 miles, 1 mile, a half-mile?) and what counts in winter as a "snow" (a brief flurry, a trace of snow, measurable snow, an inch or more?).