Research presented at the 90th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Atlanta this week.

From Steven Chan Monthly Weather Review Florida State University
Research found increased Southeast USA precipitation variability in recent decades since 1979. Over the past 50 years weather/climate variations have become more extreme. The Southeast was dry in 1980, 1990 and 2000 and unusually wet in 1994, 2003 and 2005. The TOP 3 driest AND the TOP 5 wettest occur after 1979.

From Marcus Williams el. Al. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies FSU
Research found relative warm periods in the 1920s through the 1950s and a cool period in the 1960s through the 1990s in the Southeast United States possibly related to the cycle of the AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The decadal variability of temps in the SE was strongest during the winter seasons. The number of 95 or above days increased during the warm period and the number of days at or below 32 increased during the cold regime.

The crash of Continental Flight 3407 from Newark to Buffalo Feb 12th, 2009 killing 49 on board and one on the ground. The NTSB is still investigating, but preliminary reports indicate icing and that the pilot did not respond properly to the icing. Meteorological analysis at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach Florida indicates small-scale terrain enhanced lifting of air as a primary cause of severe and rapid icing conditions unique to the flight path and time of flight for this aircraft. As the flight descended it flew through a zone of strong persistent vertical motions caused by the wind interacting with the topography enhancing super-cooled liquid water. Flight 3407 descended through this zone experiencing severe icing conditions while other flights experienced only light icing.

NASA research indicates space based sensors are available to better warn pilots over oceans of potentially dangerous thunderstorm conditions like those which probably impacted Air France Flight 447 in June 2009 en route from Rio to Paris. Near real time data could be used to generate a general aviation alert and current efforts are being made to implement such a program using a multi-sensor approach.

From the National Geophysical Data Center and University of Miami: With respect to climate the greatest decreases in global temps during periods of weak solar activity were during the Maunder Minimum (late 1600s) about 0.5C in magnitude during a 40-year period, as well as the Dalton Minimum (early 1800s), about 0.2C in magnitude during a 50-year period. Neither of these are large enough to match the magnitude of projected anthropogenic warming of 2.0C during a 100 year period. There has been increasing speculation that the current solar minimum is anomalously quiet and perhaps signals the start of a decreased period of solar activity in the coming decades. The research studied the current solar minimum and compared it to previous solar minima to see if it shares characteristics with other historically quiet solar minima (sometimes referred to as grand minima). Based on Solar Cycle 24's projected Genesis Minimum Quiet Day Index value, it's reasonable to expect Cycle 24 to be weak though not anomalous. Even if Solar Cycle 24 and subsequent solar cycles were as weak as those during the Maunder Minimum, anthropogenic warming trends would still prevail. Since its unlikely that Cycle 24 will be of Maunder Minimum magnitude, the sun should have a relatively small, but not negligible, cooling effect on climate during the next decade or two. However this study shows the global average temperature should continue to increase.