Ice has been seen unusually far south this winter.

private photo

A flip in the dominant weather pattern is taking shape but may not have legs as the hemispheric flow makes a reversal from what has thus far prevailed since the start of December. Such pattern flips sometimes lock in for 6-9 weeks or so. But there are signals indicating this one should be no more than 4 weeks and probably closer to 2 or 3.

The El Nino feature had taken an 11-day hiatus as SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) numbers went positive. But the index is now negative again therefore signaling a return to the cold dominated pattern in the east near or after months end. This is supported by model predicted negative AO Index (arctic oscillation) and MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) numbers. Both suggest that only a mild January Thaw will occur with a return to more typical seasonal temps in much of the nation for the balance of January but we should look out for a "reloading" of the chill pattern late this month or in February. Watch for several significant storm systems the next 2-3 weeks as well with at least a temporary change to a more typical El Nino pattern. This means cool and wet from California across Texas into the Southeast USA the rest of this month on average as split-flow energy heads from the West Coast to West of Michigan and from CA to FL.

This active South Jet pattern may mean the next 30-60 days in Georgia see above-average precipitation and below-average temps in the mean during that period. But arctic air will be missing in action through at least the 27th of the month. Longer-range computer projections place jet stream winds approaching the California coast early next week at a rarely seen 225 mph. Powerhouse storms become a real threat when jet stream winds grow that strong. Computer estimates of potential California precipitation over the coming 16 days---much of it predicted to fall next week--exceed 8 inches. Windy, wet West Coast storms are a hallmark of El Nino cold seasons. This will batter the West Coast with news-making wind, snow, rain, flooding and mudslides.

Computer models continue to produce eye-catching jet stream-level wind speed forecasts for early next week.  The models suggest the El Nino-fortified jet expected to be roaring toward the southern West Coast at that time could boast rare 225 mph velocities at the 30,000 ft. jet airplane cruising altitude.

There's a relationship between the strength of high altitude winds and the storms which occur beneath them. Jet stream winds help produce the swift vertical motions which drop surface air pressures and lead to the flood of air which surges into vigorous storms. The stronger a jet stream's winds blow, the faster air ascends through the atmosphere. Low-level winds blowing into the storm must strengthen to compensate. Any storm which develops with a 200+ mph jet stream can be expected to produce especially strong winds and copious precipitation next week.

Already Tuesday, Pacific region forecasters were warning of possible 50 ft. breakers just off the shores of Hawaii in coming days and of 25 ft. swells along California coast--and this is days ahead of the most significant storminess expected to hit in a series of waves next week. The Navy's NOGAPS computer weather forecast model projects waves could approach five stories high in the Pacific just west of California next week, as the first surge of storminess related to the powerhouse 200+ mph upper winds surges toward North America's coast near California and Mexico's Baja California.

The Troff West-Ridge East pattern will bring normal to above-normal temps East of the MS River with the northern storm track targeting the Rockies and upper Plains to Great Lakes. We will have to stay alert for the possibility of severe thunderstorms later this month.

This "El Nino Winter" pattern has, as was forecast here in my long-range winter forecast, not been so typical to date.

In the Pacific we have battled between a moderate El Nino with the warmth displaced more towards the central tropical Pacific, with cold water off the South American coast and a negative (cold) PDO pattern (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) that mimics La Nina patterns and keeps Pacific air entering western North America colder. The result has been colder weather than in a typical El Nino. This has been aided by Greenland blocking and episodes of historically low negative AO values and episodes of negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). This year the cold north Pacific water extends to the waters northwest of Hawaii where it was found in some of the colder El Ninos as in 1976/77.

In the arctic, we had a top 3-blocking event since 1959, the strongest (negative 5.6 standard deviations) for December and third strongest for winter (behind January 1977 and January 1970). This too has resulted in more cold and also storms that have behaved badly, stalling for days in the Mid-Atlantic, nation's midsection, and then the northeast.

The easterlies have picked up again in the tropics, which should maintain that colder east, warmest central and west configuration. The pattern is very similar to the composite for the east QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), low solar, El Nino winters.

The sunspot number of 10.6 in December, first time in two years above 10 with 9 spotless days. 2009 ended up in 5th place on the list of the most spotless days with 260, right behind 2008 with 265. 771 days so far this minimum. Thus far we have had 32 months with less than 10 sunspot number in the transition from cycle 23 to 24, the most since cycle 10 in the middle 1800s.

This no doubt contributed to the cool summer last year and is aiding and abetting the colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere.

Cold air of record or near record proportions has dominated most of the U.S. east of the Rockies all this month---and nowhere more dramatically than Florida. Historically, the Sunshine State has seen colder winter outbreaks---but few if any have lasted as long. Tampa recorded a 51-degree high Monday--the 10th consecutive day which failed to reach 60-degrees. Never over the term of weather records there (extending back 1890) has there been a longer spell of sub-60-degree temperatures. Many sections of the state recorded record-breaking lows in the teens and 20s early Monday. Miami's 62-degree high followed 48 straight hours below 50-degree temperatures--one of the longest sub-50-degree spells since records began in 1839.
 
See the slide show for the latest projections through January 26th.

As a side note if the El Nino breaks down slowly as currently projected by model consensus then next summer should be closer to normal and warmer than last summer. If on the other hand it reverses to a La Nina it could mean a hot and dry summer for a good portion of the country. Go to the examiner site if you want to see the slide show. Weather pattern past and future