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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 4:54 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 10, 2010

Big Gulf of Mexico storm system next weekend? 

By Kirk Mellish

Snow that fell from the sky, accumulation on the ground generally half the amount indicated.

Snow that fell from the sky, accumulation on the ground generally half the amount indicated.
NWSFO Peachtree City, GA

This snow lover has enjoyed the dusting of snow in Atlanta and marveled at the thickness and extent of ice on the neighborhood lake.  Rumors of new snow keep flying for some reason but my 5-day forecast has been consistent in saying no to the rumor mill whatever it's source might be. At worst some passing flakes can not be ruled out Monday Night-Tuesday Morning, but of the meaningless variety if they occur at all.

It looks like what will have to pass for the "January Thaw" is on the way,  not exactly short sleeve weather in the SE, but at least no return to harsh cold in sight until end of this month or more likely sometime next month.

As for a big storm next weekend or snow/ice threat. I can not quite rule out a little freezing precip somewhere in the North Third of Georgia with that system. But at this point I favor mostly rain, maybe moderate to heavy amounts.  The European Model which I don't have permission to show concurs with the
U.S. and Canadian models and ensembles I will put in the slide show. See Atlanta Weather Examiner.com for all the maps.

Neither the operational variants nor ensemble means support more than rain at this distance. Especially given the bias of the GFS to be too cold and too far south and east with its storm track projections.

It looks like a little more typical "El Nino" winter pattern will take us through the rest of this month with still an active southern jet, but less active than in recent months, and less cold.

Significant Gulf Low Pressure System next weekend
Needs to be watched for any ice or snow mischief but as of this writing looks like mostly rain.