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Posted: 12:13 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 3, 2010
By Kirk Mellish
In good shape for his age. I don't watch local TV so I am not sure, but I would guess that buzz has started about the Thursday-Friday time period. I first posted about the winter weather threat on December 30th while still on vacation so readers here got an early heads up and plenty of advanced notice about the possibilities. There are other POTENTIAL systems around Jan 13th and 16th give or take a few days. Some of the latest temp output for next weekend is breathtaking.
As usual the latest models put the rain/snow line near and/or across Atlanta and differ greatly on amounts, timing, location and precip types. Since the system aloft in question is yet to get into the data "net" it would be premature to attempt specifics. NO model as of this writing has a big storm. Some show very little precipitation at all, and some show snow, some show sleet/freezing rain and just rain South suburbs, others show the snow line half way to if not to Macon. So there is NO consensus yet. I think the only thing that can safely be said beyond the major cold wave is that there will be a winter weather system for at least PARTS of the Gulf Coast States Tennessee Valley and Southeast/Mid-Atlantic states, and that it will not stay completely dry, and more cold is yet to come. I am reporting in greater detail about the cold on the radio at AM 750 WSB.
That's all we can say for now. I will post more if time allows, but you
can always hear my thoughts about the next 5-days on the radio weekday
mornings from 5am-8:30am.
Let me post the medium-range forecast from the 7-day group at the National Weather Service with which I agree:
VALID 7AM THU JAN 07 2010 - 7AM SUN JAN 10 2010 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED WRN NOAM RIDGE/ERN NOAM TROF MEAN PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. SOME WEAK SRN STREAM PAC ENERGY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO FLOW ALONG/S OF 30-35N LATITUDE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD REMAIN THE SAME AS YDAY... NAMELY DETERMINING THE EVOLUTION OF ERN PAC ENERGY THAT MAY TRY TO TRAVEL THRU OR AROUND THE WRN NOAM MEAN RIDGE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD... AND THE HANDLING OF A VIGOROUS TROF FCST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE PLAINS ON WED AND THEN CONTINUE EWD THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER THAN OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH A SHRTWV REACHING WRN NOAM ON SAT... AND IS PROBABLY NOT IDEAL IN LIGHT OF MOST MODEL/ENSEMBLE TRENDS TOWARD SLOWER PROGRESSION OF ENERGY INTO OR OVER THE WRN RIDGE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THESE TRENDS ALSO SEEM TO FAVOR A MORE PERSISTENT RIDGE AS FCST BY THE 00Z GEFS MEAN VERSUS THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WHICH TO VARYING DEGREES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ENERGY THRU THE WRN CONUS. FARTHER EWD... THERE IS A FAIR CONSENSUS REGARDING THE VIGOROUS MID LVL TROF FCST TO CROSS THE CNTRL-ERN STATES WED-FRI AND SUPPORT WRN ATLC SFC DEVELOPMENT BY FRI. DAY TO DAY SHUFFLING OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS AN AVERAGE SOLN AS THE TROF CROSSES THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS. THEN STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT AND EXPECTED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WRN ATLC SEEM TO SUPPORT A TRACK WITHIN THE WRN HALF OF THE SOLN SPREAD OFF THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS IS SOMEWHAT EXTREME WITH ITS DEPTH ALOFT... AND ONLY A VERY SMALL NUMBER OF GEFS MEMBERS ARE AS DEEP/WWD AS THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN LEANS FASTER THAN BEST CLUSTERING OF LATEST GUIDANCE. A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEFS MEAN WAS USED DAYS 3-6 WED-SAT TO ARRIVE AT THE PREFERRED FCST FOR THE SYSTEM PROGRESSING FROM THE PLAINS THRU THE WRN ATLC... WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MINIMIZING ECMWF WEIGHTING FOR THE SHRTWV REACHING WRN NOAM BY SAT. DAY 7 SUN USES AN EVEN WEIGHTING OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GEFS MEAN AS THE GFS MAY BECOME TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA... AND ENSEMBLES OFFER SOME DEGREE OF SUPPORT FOR SFC TROFFING FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THAT TIME. UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS FOLLOW THE SAME BLEND USED EARLIER WITH A MINOR EWD ADJUSTMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST DAY 5 CLOSER TO THE CLUSTERING OF ENS MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. OTHERWISE THE SAME OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTS FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE OF A STRONG NEG AO/NAO WITH A POSITIVE MID LEVEL HT ANOMALY IN THE N ATLC AND ANOTHER STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY ASSOCIATED NEAR 55N 115W WITH PNA PATTERN OVER NOAM. A MASSIVE DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SWD OUT OF WRN AND CENTRAL CANADA EARLY THIS PERIOD SPILLING OVER THE DIVIDE AND PUSHING SWD THRU THE PLAINS BRINGING AN OFFSHORE EVENT TO THE WEST COAST AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF VERY COLD TEMPS DEEP INTO THE PLAINS AND GULFMEX. TEMPS IN THE PLAIS MID WEEK RUNNING 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.BREEZY WINDY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER ERN CONUS INTO MID WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NRN GLFMEX SFC WAVE WHICH WILL SPREAD A COLD RAIN INTO THE LOWER SOUTHEAST...NRN FL/GA/SC COAST WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LT SNOW FROM THE INTERIOR GULF COAST STATES NEWD THRU THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC REGIONS. AS THE SFC WAVES MOVES OFF AND ALONG THE NC COAST RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AS THE CURRENT AND CONTINUING STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER WARMER COASTAL WATERS CREATES AN UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAPID DEEPENING. GFS RUNS/ECMWF DO THIS AS DOES GEFSP BUT UKMET AND LATEST CMC DO NOT. PREFER THE DEEPER STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS. EXPECT A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW UP THE COAST FROM SE VA TO NEW ENG. ONCE THE LOW STRONGLY DEEPENS ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA ERN CONUS AGAIN EXPECT A REPEAT OF THE CURRENT VERY WINDY COLD CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WILL OCCUR THRU MID WEEK AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FL. NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND EQUALLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT COLD OUTBREAK.
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