I am beginning to wonder when I might get a weekend off or any chance at a personal life. Things are piling up on me because since the big rain storm pattern and flood began back in Sept. its been one weather threat after another and I am 24/7 on the job and nothing in my LIFE is getting done. I hate it.

I have no time so I'll post some discussions from elsewhere. My forecast has been updated on this site under 5-day forecast as always its updated daily as needed. This system is similar to the early January system that didn't cause problems until the day after it fell when temps plunged, actual accumulation if you recall was minor and more on grass than highways. Like that system this is not a storm (low pressure) moving through or South of Georgia but instead a strong front dangling down from the low storm center which started up Near Hudson Bay Canada then dropped into the USA from North of North Dakota making it a "Dakota Dasher" or "Manitoba Mauler" if you need to give it a nick-name as it tracks now from Southern MO to the DC area then up to Cape Cod, MA. In all the years I've worked here I can't remember a greater than one inch snow from a cold front but my memories not so great sometimes. And the way this winter has been going nationwide, if there were to be a "first time in memory" I guess this would be the winter for it. So while I am skeptical as of now, that doesn't mean I can't be convinced by later data. As the weather changes so will the forecast up down or completely different, whatever is needed.

MID MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

A VERY DYNAMIC UPPER VORTEX MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING FROM SD WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY BEFORE TURNING EASTERLY.  GIVEN HIGH SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF 4 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MO IN A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.  INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF 4 AND 8 INCH AMOUNTS
ARE INDICIATED ALONG THE OH RIVER GIVEN THE TENDANCY FOR HIGHER
PCPN IN AREAS WHERE THE LOW PIVOTS AND MAKES ITS TUIRN. THE 13/18Z
AND 14/00Z RUNS WERE CONSISTENT IN SENDING THE MESSAGE OF A
NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THE 14/06Z NAM
BACKED AWAY FROM THAT IDEA ALONG AND SHIFTED THE PRECIP MAX BACK
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER.  THE HPC MANUAL GRAPHICS WERE NOT ALTERED
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE 06Z NAM STILL SHOWED SUFFICENT MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF FGEN IN AREAS COVERED BY THE PROBABILITY
MAPS...PLUS THE FACT THAT THE 00Z NAM HAD A LOT OF SUPPORT FROM
THE OPERATIONAL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES.  

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWEEPS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...COLD ADVECTION LOWERED LOW LEVEL
TEMPS/THICKNESSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR PCPN TO FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF
AL/GA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  THERE SOULD BE
ENOUGH PCPN TO WARRANT A LOW END MDT RISK EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN
GA/AL WITH A SLGT RISK EXTNENDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.