But its all just potential before the answer is past tense and hindsight is 20/20. The stratospheric warming event above the North Pole weeks ago which signaled the new tanking of the negative AO/NAO blocking pattern that would follow is about a 20 day signal lag. The colder than normal air that follows typically lasts in a range from 20-45 days in the U.S. East of the Rockies. There has been a noticeable jump in GLAMM and the El Nino has peeked but will bounce around with a general decline trend to neutral by Summer, all signs that what I've been saying for months now still looks true, no EARLY spring. BTW, today is the last day of "the dead of winter" that time when national mean or average temperatures are at their yearly lowest.

As for the next winter threat the numerical variants are still struggling to get a handle on the southern jet stream system, more than usual, which is normal for STJ systems due to the data void we've talked about before. The CMC and JP35 are the most aggressive with snow amounts of 1-3 in metro Atlanta and 3-6 in South AL and GA. But other models show less than a dusting or ZERO. They also don't agree on storm track or strength, or how much moisture will be involved. Nor to they agree on the timing of arrival and departure. The only consensus seems to be there will be no freezing rain, and that snow OR a rain/snow mix is more likely than rain and only rain. At any rate, whatever happens with this system there is no reason to think there will be no more chances before short-sleeve weather returns. Except for us snow lovers most people are complaining to me that they are "over this". From an experience standpoint my gut has been telling me since Saturday this system does not "smell right" for a big ATL storm to this point anyway, but lets see what todays model runs show.  I'll forecast based on all available data and give it my best shot and forecast whatever looks right to me based on all the model guidance not just my gut :)

Remember, if you are on the net then you can click listen live on the wsbradio home page or if you don't have audio and you can read the blog-- then you can click and read the 5-day forecast which I update as needed daily, even when the blog is old.