It is interesting to note that since I issued my preliminary winter forecast a host of other sources have come out with their winter outlooks and they all look at least similar. From Southern Nevada to Idaho record early snows have fallen already and more snow storms are on the way for the Mountain West and into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.

The Commodity Weather Group is calling for the coldest winter in a decade in much of the East and South U.S. Both the Farmers Almanac and The Old Farmers Almanac are calling for quite a winter. A couple forecasters at Accu-Weather are calling for cold and above-normal snow in the East and South. A private forecaster formerly at the Weather Channel and ABC News Joe D'Aleo is calling for a cold winter for much of the country. Weather Services International is calling for colder than normal weather in the Southeast USA October through December.  Both the European and American long-range climate models are pointing in the same direction for the Fall and Winter. Much of this is based on the El Nino condition being on the weak side which correlates with a 70-75% chance of below-normal winter temps East of the Mississippi River. Of course this is only one factor and it as well as the other signals we look at could change over the next couple months, if so the long-range forecast for winter will also have to change.

Natural gas prices should withstand below-normal winter temps as record high inventories are expected at least this month and maybe through December or longer.

However, I am a little concerned that most forecasters agree. This is unusual so I hope we're not all being fooled. My final forecast call will come out no later than the start of December. m