The summer of 2009 June-August is likely to be noted for a lack of extreme heat for most of the country, including Georgia. A neutral or weak El Nino in the Pacific Ocean and the solar minima are the two biggest factors in making the forecast. Other factors include the multi-decadal ocean cycles in both the Atlantic and the Pacific, the QBO, hurricane analogs, 3rd year La Nina moving toward El Nino, antecedent Atlantic Ocean temps and dry air sources, pressure patterns, recent high latitude volcanic activity, spring heat waves in New England, computer models, and soil moisture in the U.S.  Wet winters and springs typical of La Nina tends to retard heat build up because more energy goes into evaporation and greater soil moisture is a source for at least normal summertime scattered clouds and thundershowers.  

The trend revealed by analogs of similar matches from past weather history indicate a normal to cool summer for much of the nation, including the Peach State.  There are two areas of the nation where the analogs show at least some possibility of warmer than normal summer weather: The Dakotas and Western Minnesota, and Colorado to the North half of Texas. So all the analogs show IF prolonged hot summer weather develops it will be the exception to a normal or cool summer. Finding a clear-cut tendency in summer rainfall is always more difficult and is certainly true of this years analog set. But there seems to be some trend toward below-normal rainfall from the western Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic states NY to VA and to a lesser extent in Oklahoma-North Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi and the Desert Southwest. The best chance for at least a little drier than normal is Minnesota to Iowa and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and adjacent areas, as well as from Southern California to Alabama.  There is some tendency for above-normal rainfall in FL and around the area where Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas come together.  The best chances for a little wetter than normal are Florida and the inter mountain West and Northern Rockies. The vast majority of the country shows near-normal rainfall including most of Georgia.

It should be noted that while winter long-range forecasts have significant useful accuracy, long-range forecasting for the summer period is mediocre due to the lower correlation of signals to summer atmosphere behavior, and the ability of more localized or regional affects to overwhelm hemispheric patterns.  In other words, you sometimes get the big picture right but the sensible weather at the surface in a specific region may be off the mark from what would be expected given the pattern aloft.

My hurricane season outlook: 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major.  (Estimated 3 or 4 will impact the U.S. coastline 1 major)  The rainfall analogs seem to hint at tropical activity from NC to the Florida Peninsula, but of course the Gulf Coast is still vulnerable, too. Normal since 1950 are 10, 6, 2.

The primary analog year list I am using: 1912, 1915, 1942, 1951, 1956, 1957, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1976, 1977, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008.  Secondary analog years are: 1879, 1890, 1902, 1914, 1924, 1934, 1945, 1955, 1963, 1972, and 1987.

Where did these analogs come from?  They are based on: the multi-decadal pattern of ocean temps in the Atlantic and Pacific: the mode of the AMO, PDO, and QBO. The forecast of neutral or weak El Niño conditions in the Pacific.  African rainfall forecast/African dust-dry air over the Atlantic breeding tropical breeding ground, the expectation for normal or slightly enhanced wind shear over the breeding grounds, analogs chosen by hurricane experts, solar and earth orbit cycles, high latitude volcanic eruptions, cooler than normal sea temps in parts of the Atlantic and Caribbean, 3rd year La Niña patterns transitioning to El Niño, El Niño near a solar minimum, summers following anomalous New England April Heat waves.

NEXT WINTER, with the current expectation of an El Nino during the coming winter the tendency for "interesting" fall and winter weather increases with the subtropical jet stream more active.  Potential for severe weather and snow tend to be elevated, with temps for the whole winter averaging on the cool side of normal and rainfall near-normal in North Georgia and Above Normal in South Georgia.