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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 11:14 a.m. Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Parade of storm systems 

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By Kirk Mellish

Looks like a 2-3 week period of big time low pressure systems marching across the country with blizzards on the Northwest side, flooding and severe weather including tornadoes on the Southeast side of the tracks. Model consensus suggests much of the Southeastern states will see 5 day rainfall totals averaging 3 to 5 inches, average means some places get more some get less.  Too soon to tell where the worst will fall, but it looks like at least a good soaking for everyone in  Georgia before all is said and done and flooding in some areas will be no surprise. The potential exists for at least one round, if not multiple rounds, of severe weather as well, with all forms of it possible, including a tornado. Again, the timing and location details are still TBD, but Atlanta would probably be included sometime in the Thursday to Sunday morning time frame as it stands now. We can hope we get nice rain without a tornado threat but it's too early to know. The POTENTIAL for extreme rain amounts and damaging thunderstorms is at least on the table. The GFS model has in some runs, over the past few days, showed 12 inch rain totals added up over a 15 day period-- not all at once, and this does not mean it rains non stop for 10 or 15 days. This is model output not my forecast yet, and the GFS models "convective feedback" problem contaminating its quantitative precipitation prognosis is a well known model flaw.  None-the-less, an old meteorology professor liked to say most droughts end in flood and most floods end in drought.  Natures crazy pendulum swings. Weather will probably become a top news story and I will cover what I can in the on-air reports at the beginning of the newscasts and in the forecast segments. But remember, I only have very limited time so can't cover everything at once in any single report or forecast. So the more reports you hear the more detail you'll have, miss a little you may miss a lot.