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Posted: 7:21 a.m. Thursday, June 11, 2009
By Kirk Mellish
Some notes from me and from the Mark Vogan weather blog seeing the same thing:
Atlanta since Jan 1st rainfall is 101% of normal and 23% wetter than last year to date. In May Atlanta rain was 15% above normal, temperatures were +0.4 F.
April, May and now June have been chilly across much of the lower 48. Despite a few record hot days in some states as is the norm each year, there has been more normal or cooler than normal weather in the country SO FAR. California and the 4 corners region, the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Great Lakes and New England region have been cool. Canada's interior from Winnipeg to Churchill is still cold, even frozen with the last days of May seeing snow and freezing temperatures throughout the day in Churchill, Manitoba, the exception to the rule has been the Southwest up until about a week ago. The warmth has yet to arrive there across southern and central Canada yet it's now incredibly June 9. Just a couple of days ago we saw snow falling at Dickinson, North Dakota and areas of Montana saw upwards of 5 inches of snow with lows setting new records in the low 20s with highs only topping the 30s and 40s. International Falls, Minnesota hit 27 degrees for it's coldest so late in the season just days ago. Mt Washington, New Hampshire reported 83 mph winds, heavy snow and a record low of just 18 degrees on June 1. Win chills were likely between zero and 10 below zero!!. Same day Saranac Lake, New York reported heavy snow and 32 degrees, Bradford, Pennsylvania chilled to 29 degrees. This like last June's 40 inches of snow at Browning, Montana, the 48 inch blizzard in the South Dakota badlands in May and the increase in late season record lows are all signs of cooling in spring and the lingering effects from an increasingly cold winter, the late season chill means shorter summer warmth, I expect to see earlier signs of winter in the next few years, (remember Buffalo's October blizzard?) rather than late season warmth which recently has taken us into October, November and in some cases December.
I am beginning to see winter lingering into spring now more and more and this year, what's literally summer even though it's now officially summer is still chilly and April-like. Reason I say that is because, by June I have seen 110s in the Desert Southwest by now. Phoenix and Las Vegas has cooled considerably because of an unusual trough and storm system that has penetrated the West Coast with rain, wind and yes, mountain snow. California is not warm at all. LA has seen high's for about a week now some 5-12 degrees below normal, it's raining there at times along with thunder and lightning. Even the inland valleys aren't that warm, high's struggling to get above 80 degrees. We should be seeing 90s this time of year. June gloom should be the rule these days with thick fog and stratus cloud in the morning with mid-day burn off and bright sunshine, 60s and 70s along the coast, 80s for basin and 90s to low 100s from the inland valleys and canyons to desert.
All this is thanks to the PDO starting to charge the atmosphere. I do believe we have a cooler Western summer than normal, we are already behind in the warming, instead of 100s for Las Vegas and Phoenix, and it's 90s. Instead of 80s, 90s and low 100s from LA to Riverside to Palm Springs, it's 70s and 80s with only 90s in Palm Springs.
The Pacific Ocean is going to give birth to an El Nino later this summer, reason being, we can't hold onto a La Nina forever, eventually it must swing the other way. Because of the "weak" El Nino prospects for late summer, fall and into next winter. I see a very harsh winter ahead for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coming, big snows and bitter cold. New York, Philadelphia, Washington will see lows get below zero next winter and this is simply the next chapter. It will remain cold this summer across central and northern Canada with perhaps a short window of modest warmth spreading up through seasonal feedback in mid to late July from the Rocky Mountain high and southwest heat pump, but cooling will soon be on the horizon with short liquid days on Hudson Bay, that by the way will remain partly frozen well into July and that's one of my indicators to why central Canada will be tough to heat this summer. This setting the stage to fast paced cooling as the Arctic freezes up again in late August, September and the air already chilled from surface to aloft will be easier to get cold when it's already cool! Weak El Nino's tend to bring cold Northeast winters and with the setup we have now going the past 2 winters and the cool summer on the way, I strongly believe the Northeast could see one of the coldest winters in the past 50 years on the way. Those waters off the East Coast, though warming, aren't as warm in last summer or summers previous. The Atlantic is cooling from tropics on north. The European winter last year with its record snow and cold may be their first signs of a reversing warm signal that has been the mainstay of the past 30 years. Cooling the North Atlantic WILL not might bring back those winters of the 60s and 70s, but those winters are still many years away, but each and every year will see increasingly colder winters and more snow.
The sunspot activity and solar minimum is also coinciding with cold PDO, commencement in the reversal of the warm AMO and history. The cooler summer is also likely driven by not only the colder northern latitudes influence on the warmer regions but less output from the sun is simply making it harder to heat the earth in the same way. Increase in rainfall east of the Rockies, creates wet ground and this also diverts solar energy usage for evaporation away from heating the surface. Again resulting in cooler temperatures. I also suspect thunderstorm development may become for conducive as temperatures in the mid and upper levels are colder due to slow warming from winter, therefore lapse rates are greater and thunderstorm development is more likely, cloud cover and precipitation result in cooler air masses.
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