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Posted: 8:30 a.m. Monday, July 27, 2009
By Kirk Mellish
Some high humidity the next 5-7 days with an unusual July jet stream pattern across the nation-- a big ridge out west building way up into Canada and a troff from Central Canada down into the Mississippi River Valley as the Bermuda high try's to nose into the Southeast states from the Atlantic. Weak fronts will settle into our region, stall out and wash away while upper-level impulses of short-wave energy move through the mean southwesterly flow aloft from time to time. The air mass will become increasingly moist with the SW upper flow and surface flow W/SW. This will give much of North and Central Georgia a chance of rain each day, running normal to above-normal for this time of year, while temps run normal to below-average for late July- which is a good thing with the air becoming more soupy this week. Rainfall amounts any given day averaging a half to one inch with isolated 2 inch totals possible. The NOAA/NWS QPF branch is forecasting widespread 5 day totals of 3 inches or more, that seems too high to me but bears watching. At any rate remember the random nature of summertime thunderstorms means every day is a little different and some places get pounded repeatedly while some places keep getting missed. But the idea for the next 7 days is for mainly afternoon and evening (with fewer late night and early morning) showers and thunderstorms-- to start out isolated then become scattered to numerous before we get to Sunday. Widespread severe weather is not expected but a few strong storms are possible. It will not rain continuously and the distribution of rain will be uneven as is typical in Atlanta in summer, but everyone should get at least something over the 7 day time frame, with the coverage thinning out over the weekend. Longer-range there are signs of some big heat returning for the early part of August, but the models have been inconsistent with that projection in the 10-16 day outlook. The tropics are still quiet so no tropical storms or hurricanes in the foreseeable future.
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