On the 12Z analysis charts obtained from the balloon soundings the upper air charts show our friend/enemy closed low from SW South Dakota to NW Missouri.  As this is not a typical scenario for snow the expect the unexpected rule still applies (see previous entry) anything from thundersnow to heaviest amounts being scattered instead of concentrated or even being West East or South rather than just North as would usually be expected. The fact is we simply lack any skill in forecasting snow under these anomalous closed lows, and as stated previously our tools, the computer algorithms don't offer much guidance compared to the more "normal" snowstorm involving a surface low traveling along an established baroclinic zone producing isentropic lift and overrunning precipitation. The 09Z SREF is still pointing toward inch amounts, while if you take a mean of amount and location of the NAM and GFS you get 2-4.  Keep in mind this is model snow FROM THE CLOUDS, if a million inches fell but half melted the amount on the ground would be less than what fell from the sky.  And with warm pavement and marginal temps expected tomorrow i.e. its not 28-32 for a daytime high but low 40s falling into the 30s and/or a mix or changeover to rain I have to lean toward lower amounts for now. If the rate of snowfall was sufficient it could overwhelm/overcome the antecedant warmth. But this being a bowling ball low atypical synoptic pattern its likely last minute mesoscale features with surface evaporational cooling, dynamical cooling and deformation zone (comma head) placement will be the key to where the snow and heavy snow falls.  In all likelihood we may not be able to foresee where that will be until just before it starts happening or maybe we'll just have to nowcast and watch it develop in place.  A fellow met. has said he sees how Georgia gets 6-18 inches from this thing. And while I can see how, well, easy for him to say, since he doesn't live or work here. Can you imagine if anyone in Atlanta forecast that 24 hours in advance?  First, mass laughter and or hysteria, then tar and feathers and cursing if it did not happen in your backyard.  Hence my reluctance to go out on a limb just for the sake of it, or because I love snow.  I don't mind forecasting anything dramatic to occur or miss, IF I see strong evidence.  That's what I do. It still bites me sometimes and I can be confident and wrong. Just as in this business you can have lower than normal confidence in a forecast and it works out fine. It's the nature of the beast.  No sense getting all happy or angry about it. Its just life and its just the weather. Not the start of the world or end of the world.  If it snows it wont start your house on fire or harm your pet or family. It's JUST snow, not volcanic ash. And if it just rains, or snows but melts, so what else is new, we live in the South not Green Bay.  Life will go on.  And if it snows a ton, we have heated homes and stores within walking distance. And in Atlanta the biggest snows I've seen did not keep roads closed for a week threatening us with running out of food, but for a day! The only time I've predicted heavy snow total and blizzard conditions in Atlanta was March13, 1993 and I won two national awards from the AMS and NWA for being having the best and earliest forecast of it.  BUT I also remember back in the 1990s forecasting 1-3 inches--and just 4 hours later it was clear it would not happen. In fact, I think we saw some sun later that day.  Now that hurts, I mean painful. Sure all forecasts in town were close, but I don't care about that. Knowing I was wrong always makes me angry, and usually puts me in a bad mood for a week. Kind of like when my football team loses!  And forecasters know when they're wrong,  I am guessing we all notice :) so no need to tell them or be unchristian. I will continue updating the forecast on air (except today I am off) and on the forecast page (even today) Remember this blog is something extra I do IF and when I have time. The primary means of delivering my thoughts are (A) the radio and (B) the forecast page.  Nothing against blogging or any of you, but we are a radio station not a web station. Thanks for understanding and God Bless.