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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 4:22 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2009

What's 300 miles among friends? 

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By Kirk Mellish

The latest suite of NWP models continues the madness of extreme range output, including over a 300 mile difference in surface low track. The JMA and Canadian probably showing the greatest standard deviations in height fields and resulting deep cyclogenesis. So other than increasing the probability of precipitation (POP) I'll stick to the same forecast I issued this morning.  By Friday morning low pressure NE of Detroit trails a cold front SW to TX with a new low forming on the front in TX. Friday evening the front is in NW GA with a surface wave on the front in LA. As this is happening short-wave energy is digging SE from the MO River Valley and Saturday morning surface low is in NW GA, it tracks East to off the coast of SC Sunday Morning pulling the cold front through GA as upper trough settles over GA. The state climatologist office says over the past two months drought conditions in GA have expanded and worsened. So if we can get a good soaking it will sure be welcome if we can avoid anything worse. The models all suggest good odds of moderate to heavy rain SOMEWHERE IN THE SE USA but differ in where the axis of heaviest rain falls. Fingers crossed for the Mountains and Lannier drainage basin.  Of course all new models every 12 hours so still time to fine tune the forecast, which is detailed at the link "Kirk's 5 day forecast".