It's 11:50 pm Saturday, do you know where your weather forecaster is? At the ole update desk typing this for you. Baring any last minute, and always possible, major changes in future computer guidance, looks like nothing but drizzle and a flurry to worry about around here and then a brief intense cold snap. The models had been in agreement on a blizzard for the TN and Ohio Valleys into the NE states early next week. But since then the various equations have shown the 3 jet streams will not phase into a monster after all, or won't do so until New England states and SE Canada. If this is indeed the case, I will remember it as one of the more dramatic busts of a consensus forecast I can remember in over a decade. Not that the models ever agreed on the details, but on the big picture, they were all screaming the same message about a possible historic storm starting just North of Georgia. The single wave Gulf low is now projected further South and weaker with less moisture, and is projected to not strengthen or re-develop until somewhere around the VA Capes. Polar air will send the freeze line back down into FLA by the 4th behind the departing system. Meanwhile the ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation after a brief "hiccup" toward El Nino is back in La Ninas arms again in weak status. You will recall that my Oct and Dec outlook for the coming winter allowed for a neutral to weak La Nina expectation. Based on MEI measures the weak La Nina is ranked closest to the 1974 analog year, one which saw La Nina last well into 1976. You can web search the government weather services views of what they feel this means to the weather in the months ahead. Of course, other factors will play a role, including the SSW event. The stratospheric warming usually is a pre-cursor signal to colder weather East of the Rockies with about a 3 week lag. So after the brief cold wave, we get a delayed January thaw-- in Feb.-- before colder readings return, combined with the La Nina and MJO, the nation probably faces an interesting Mid-Feb to early March weather wise.