The potential snowstorm I've been blogging about since Sunday that some models initially showed for Friday has now been moved to Monday or Tuesday. All 3 Jet streams combine (jet coupling and ageostrophic adjustments) for a major planetary wave amplification over the Eastern USA next week could mean storm with 70% of the intensity of the Blizzard of 93-- DO NOT read that as Kirk is forecasting a blizzard in Atlanta that's not what I wrote. Because the projected system (does not exist in the real world right now!) also is similar to other HISTORIC Nor Easters like storms in 2000, 2006, 1978, 1996, and 1950 etc. that did NOT slam Atlanta. PRELIMINARY signs point to AR, MS, AL, TN, KY, NC, SC, VA with some ice for GA Mountains and a dusting or less for Atlanta but this could change. One thing worth noting is that there is now consensus that some "system" will develop over the weekend or Monday and it will probably be a monster for somebody, as it tracks somewhere across the South and East USA early next week. Virtually every model out there shows some similar low pressure and frontal system but of course track, timing, moisture and intensity all differ. The general idea is that a Gulf of Mexico low forms and track East near the Gulf Coast then turns up the East Coast as it cranks up while at the same time a new arctic front advances toward the developing system as a new upper level long wave trough forms East of the MS River. The low tracks from South TX to South of New Orleans to Mobile-Tallahassee then EITHER Jax FL North or NE inland over GA to New England. There is some energy shown on Sat imagery in the Southern Pacific trailed by a kicker system North of Hawaii plus vorticity impulses in the Northern Jet Stream so there is support in the obs data for something brewing. But keep in mind NO low exists right now. Its all a figment of the computers imagination if you will, a result of the equations. And at 5-6 days a way a lot can change. Sure this COULD be a big snow for somebody in Dixie and/or the East Coast, but its way-way-way too soon to make a realistic estimate as to where. I will say that the general pattern PREDICTED by the various algorithms is favorable in the general sense. BUT it is NOT yet the classic Atlanta snowstorm pattern as the thermal profile is far from ideal, the track uncertain and not ideal, and we don't yet know if this will be a so-called "Miller A" or "Miller B" storm, a suppressed "fish" storm, or a "Lakes Cutter" or "Appalachian runner". IF there is a storm at all. I think there WILL be a low, given all the model and data support, and the model run to run persistence and consensus for a couple days in a row now and multiple model runs. BUT the devil is in the detail and there is NO consensus on that at this point, and at least FOR NOW, I lean toward mostly rain, with at least some snow flurries on the back end as the polar plunge comes into the SE once again. This is because I favor more of an inland route up the Piedmont for 3 reasons. Cold dense air is not in place ahead of the storm but would have to move in just in time-this only rarely occurs. Model error this season has been too far SE with storm tracks so I adjust NW. Thirdly as the split flow jet energy phases into one long-wave trof, the system goes from neutral to negative tilt, so it gets drawn North toward the dropping Arctic air core and arctic short-wave favoring more of the climatological Chattanooga express path. Of course, I could be wrong and it wont phase, or will phase later further East and North, or "bomb" out (bombogenesis) with enough dynamic cooling, lift and frontogentic forcing and backlash to be a biggie here. It could even never phase and just stay weak with little action for anyone as it stays a flat wave and heads out into the Atlantic. Regardless, most models favor a discharge of cAK air from Canada to the Keys between Feb 1-4. As is always the case, in the days ahead, the models will do their typical cha-cha-cha of giving and taking away and swapping roles etc. The weatherman says somethings on the move, but I am not willing to howl at the moon at this juncture. The situation bears watching, and I will, as I have since I first saw the snow threat last Sunday afternoon.