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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 3:08 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2009

Model mayhem 

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By Kirk Mellish

At mid-morning I see a forecasters worst nightmare. Instead of the numerical weather prediction models trending toward one solution, the latest model guidance is diverging away from each other and even away from their previous output. They run the gamut on what to expect here and even up in the Northern states where there HAD long been consensus on a blizzard with 50-70% the power or past storms like 93, 50, 96 etc. BUT now even that has vanished. This is why I don't change my forecast with every model run, or make foolish predictions like 5 inches for Atlanta when the projected system is still days away. Model mayhem will continue. If you've been reading along since Sunday you know this was to be expected. It's just too soon to make a hard and fast call, as ANY call made now (dry, rain, heavy snow, 3 flakes, sunny) would have to be adjusted as we get closer to the event, if there is to be one at all! Taken at face value the trend in at least the GFS American model would point to a lot of nothing beyond a brief cold wave. And since this model and all the others keep changing every day, it is silly to panic and too soon to just write it off. That's why I look at data almost non-stop all day long, and forecast every day--not just once a week.