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Posted: 3:08 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2009
By Kirk Mellish
At mid-morning I see a forecasters worst nightmare. Instead of the
numerical weather prediction models trending toward one solution, the
latest model guidance is diverging away from each other and even away
from their previous output. They run the gamut on what to expect here
and even up in the Northern states where there HAD long been consensus
on a blizzard with 50-70% the power or past storms like 93, 50, 96 etc.
BUT now even that has vanished. This is why I don't change my forecast
with every model run, or make foolish predictions like 5 inches for
Atlanta when the projected system is still days away. Model mayhem will
continue. If you've been reading along since Sunday you know this was
to be expected. It's just too soon to make a hard and fast call, as ANY
call made now (dry, rain, heavy snow, 3 flakes, sunny) would have to be
adjusted as we get closer to the event, if there is to be one at all!
Taken at face value the trend in at least the GFS American model would
point to a lot of nothing beyond a brief cold wave. And since this
model and all the others keep changing every day, it is silly to panic
and too soon to just write it off. That's why I look at data almost
non-stop all day long, and forecast every day--not just once a week.
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