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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 2:51 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2009

Chances for ice or snow 

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By Kirk Mellish

SET CONDITION SQ (storm quotient) 3 ALERT LEVEL 3 pattern is FAVORABLE but NOT probable... there is NO disagreement in the dozens of computer models that a major pattern change to dramatically colder is on the way for the next 10-15 days and more than one model Euro, Canadian, American hint at a couple of chances for ice or snow in Atlanta. Too early for specifics but one threat comes Jan 14th give or take a couple days, and the other Jan 19th give or take a few days. The UPPER LEVEL winds aloft flow pattern of the Jet Stream is forecast to become positive for winter weather. In the South it is always best to have cold air established and firmly in place in order to get ice or snow. The cases where we need the moisture and cold temps to come together just in time almost never work out. So step one is getting a polar front to move through Dixie and stall on the Gulf Coast or in the Gulf and off the East Coast. Then the upper level troff is positively tilted over the Center of the country leaning back toward CA and AZ to the MS River and the energy aloft comes out of that and cyclogenesis occurs along the baroclinic zone (front) in TX or the Gulf and it sends overrunning precip over the cold dome to produce winter precip. This is being shown by many models. But keep in mind with no cold air in place yet and NO storm in existence this is still in the "pattern recognition" stage of synoptic meteorology hence no specifics can be given. It looks like for at least parts of the nation, if not here, the coldest air mass in a decade to 15 years.