Follow us on

Listen live to Atlanta's breaking news, severe weather, & traffic online

recent on-air advertisers

Now Playing

News/Talk WSB
Listen live to ...

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 11:05 a.m. Saturday, Dec. 12, 2009

Dreaming of a White Christmas 

Previous Posts

By Kirk Mellish

GFS model Christmas day.

GFS model Christmas day.
NOAA/NCEP/NMC

Here is a peek at the American GFS Global Forecast System numerical weather prediction model for mid-day December 25, 2009. Areas North of the blue "540" line (1000mb-500mb critical thickness) would have a chance of snow if there is precipitation.

The models continue to suggest our active cold and stormy split-flow jet stream pattern will continue the rest of the month. The GFS has on and off suggest some pre-Christmas snow in Atlanta. However, this model shows phantom snows at least a dozen times each winter in its extended-projection so I never take them seriously beyond 7 days. Because after that the resolution of the model is reduced so funky things happen in its projections.

The snow cover map in the slide show is from the American CFS Climate Forecast System model for the end of January 2010, the end of December map looked about the same.

Estimated projected snow extent end of December/January

CFS model end of January snow cover. End of December looked much the sam