Hurricane season in the Atlantic, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, runs June 1st - November 30th. Since 1995 most hurricane seasons have been more active than the long-term average as the Atlantic has entered a warm cycle and the Pacific a cold cycle. Last year was very active with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major. There is agreement that this season should at least be less active than last year. But it only takes one bad hit, and nobody knows if or where that might occur. There are a number of groups that predict seasonal tropical cyclone activity.

The American private forecasting firm WSI, Inc. issued a forecast in December calling for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major. I am sure they will soon update their forecast.

The American private forecasting company AccuWeather, Inc. in early March predicted 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major. They indicated an elevated risk of a hit on the U.S. East Coast and near normal for the Gulf.  They predict 4 named storms impacting the United States, 3 being hurricanes with one of those being major. They predict 2 named storms impact the Atlantic coast and 2 impact the Gulf Coast.

The Weather Research Center in Houston is forecasting 7 named storms with 4 of these becoming hurricanes.  They forecast a 50% chance of a category 3 or higher hurricane, and forecast 3 hits somewhere on the U.S. They predict a 70% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall along the Gulf coast from Louisiana to Alabama, 60% for the Florida West Coast, a 40% chance for Texas, 30% chance for the East Coast except a 50% chance for the coastal Carolinas.  The WRC long-range forecast for the 2010 season heavily targets landfall on Florida 80%, and in 2011 heavily targets Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the West coast of Florida at 90%.

The Colorado State University team is calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes. They say there is a near average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. Gulf or East Coast. Gulf coast from Florida Pan Handle to Brownsville, Texas 31% and East Coast including Florida Peninsula 32%.

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. is calling for 15 named storms, 8 being hurricanes, 4 of those major.  They give a 63% chance of above-normal numbers and project 5 storms will hit the U.S., with 2 of these being hurricanes.

Simple climate average activity or climatology would expect 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major in a so-called "typical" year. The "normal" probability over the last 100 years of a category 3 or higher storm hitting somewhere in the USA is 52%, 31% for East Coast and Florida Peninsula, 30% for the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle.

The Colorado team admits that while their forecasts are skillful in the months ahead, the April outlooks have not had skill in the past 13 years.  The average skill of the TSR April numbers forecast is just 9% better than climatology.  Their landfall forecast skill is 10-15% above a coin flip.  The WRC claims it predicts the highest risk of landfall with 88% accuracy measured over a 25-year period. The other 2 companies did not make any claims about accuracy levels.

Neither the U.S. National Weather Service nor the U.K. Meteorological Office has issued predictions yet for this year. One reason April outlooks are not so accurate compared to later updates is that the ocean temperature patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific are not forecast well far in advance but play a key role in tropical storm formation.

The latest computer model forecasts for the Pacific Ocean signal indicate a majority of models forecast neutral conditions with 3 showing El Nino conditions. La Nina and neutral favor more active seasons while El Nino favors a lower than normal number of storms.

The system I use to make my hurricane season forecasts consists of using the mean from a list of derived analog years with lesser weighting to other factors.  This list currently shows 12 named storms, 7 of those hurricanes, and 4 of the 7 being major. I will update my forecast and the others before we get to the meat of the hurricane season August through October with the peak in September.