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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 1:57 p.m. Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Reluctant spring 

By Kirk Mellish

After the next storm system tomorrow-tomorrow night another one comes along Sunday-Monday followed by yet another cold snap that may include frost early next week with below-normal temps, some highs only in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s. It still looks like things will start to turn around in the second half of this month now that March went out like a lamb after coming in like a lion. May should suddenly turn to springtime with a trend toward more normal weather. lThe SELS group in OK is worried about tomorrow, if we get into the warm sector and there's no moisture blockage along the gulf I will be, too.  Here's the synoptic outlook, but remember the devils details are in the mesoscale features not discernable at this time:

THREAT STILL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT OVER A PORTION OF
THE SERN STATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS DO EXIST. THE
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
HAS BEEN SHUNTED SWD INTO THE NRN GULF SOUTH OF A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTORS INVOLVE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF REGION EARLY
THURSDAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN
GULF...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. CONCERN IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT THE NWD RETURN OF THE RICH GULF MOISTURE TO SOME
EXTENT WITH LOW TO MID 60S MORE LIKELY OVER THE SERN STATES THAN
UPPER 60S INLAND FROM COASTAL AREAS. REMNANT EML WILL LIKELY ADVECT
EWD ABOVE THE RETURNING MOIST AXIS...AND IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL
FOR EARLY STRATUS COULD RESULT IN A CAP IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY UNDERGO SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
DAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT...WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING/DPVA ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN TX
INTO AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST DURING THE DAY AND
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH HODOGRAPHS SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND LEWP STRUCTURES. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS AL...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL INITIALLY NOT BE PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO THE SPLIT LOW LEVEL
JET STRUCTURE WITH ONE BRANCH FARTHER WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ANOTHER BRANCH FARTHER SWD ALONG
THE GULF COAST. DISCRETE INITIATION AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS POSSIBLE BUT IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
MODEST CAP AND PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT
BREAKS OCCUR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME IN THIS REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. IF DISCRETE MODES CAN DEVELOP AND
BE MAINTAINED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...THE THE TORNADO
THREAT WOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE HIGHER.

OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION.

...SE GA INTO CAROLINAS...

THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT ENEWD
THROUGH SRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SOME INLAND RECOVERY IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW STRENGTHENS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.