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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Below average number of tornadoes so far.

Good drought to have

The "mini" tornado drought in GA and the U.S. welcome.

Storm Prediction Center/NOAA tornado stats to date.

Tornado season in Georgia

Tornado season off to quiet start, like recent years.

Colder than normal Wednesday GFS ensemble departure from normal

Cold then warm plus model for spring and summer

Winter chill then prolonged warm spell next 5-10 days. Plus a look at rest of spring and summer

Spring officially is here so it would be nice if Old Man Winter would surrender.

March snow April snow?

Snow in Atlanta in March or even April not unheard of.

December-February winter temperature departure from normal.

Winter in review

Slightly colder and drier than normal winter for Georgia in 2013-2014.

The Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Nino Watch.

Spring outlook, El Nino Watch issued

The Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Nino Watch.

GGEM model 500mb jet stream and vorticity chart Thursday PM.

3 strikes and you pout

3 strikes and the models are out. Out of their wheel-house.

Miller A type storm system projected late week.

Weather gets interesting

The end of the week needs to be monitored for winter storm of SOME TYPE in parts of the SE USA.

GFS ensemble daily temperature departure from normal.

The weather word is Changeable

Not a lot of warm weather the next 2 or 3 weeks, but no long lasting deep freeze.

Ridge West Trough East pattern with cross polar flow starts middle of next week and continues into March. Map shows GFS Ensemble.

Another Polar Vortex move

Colder than normal temperatures close out February and start March.

CIPS analog guidance shows below normal temperature probability high centered on Feb 28th.

Winter not done

Winter not over yet.

Snow and ice maps do not depict sleet (ice pellets) just snow and ice from freezing rain.

Georgia snow cover map

Preliminary snow and ice (note does not show sleet)

Things to know about ice and snow

Rough guidelines important reminders on ice storms, snow.

AKA Saskatchewan screamer, Manitoba Mauler

How to get snow or not in Georgia

The Clipper front, the upper low and the surface storm walk into a bar.

Most of the time the milk and bread panic starts with the mere mention of snow flurries even when little or no accumulation is expected. It's rare for Atlanta snow to keep us from normal routine for more than 3 days, more often it's one day.

Snow in Atlanta not as rare as some think

Officials must take into account snowfall statistics in planning. Snow and ice are not that rare.

This chart shows the 850mb chart (about 5,000 feet) for frontogenesis (the development of a front or baroclinic zone) which results in "frontogenic forcing" or concentrated upward air motions where contrasting air masses cold in blue and warm in red come together resulting in precipitation with snow in coldest air and rain in warmest air. The purple lines indicate where a front was in the process of forming and intensifying right overhead over Atlanta.

Tuesday snow maps Real weather charts

SEE and view ACTUAL weather maps of the Tuesday snow and sleet system.

I would like computer models more if only... wonder if they like to do differential equations with the physics of the atmosphere?

The models are flaky

Why its a tricky forecast and why you should keep perspective.

Snow or glancing blow?

Tracking a threat from Old Man Winter.

Medium to long-range outlook

Looking for supporting evidence for snow or ice.

Short-range ensemble forecast temperatures for Atlanta, date and time at bottom.

Polar plunge, take 2

One dip of the Siberian Express deserves another.

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