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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Weather always has a wide range of possible outcomes, that range increases the further out in time the forecast goes. Weather is a nonlinear system, the "answer" is always in chaos, which is why it is so unpredictable. Info graphic from NWS.

There is chaos in weather

Chaos theory explains why forecasts go awry and change.

Select cities average first measurable snowfall.

Winter weather outlook 2015-16

Yet another notable winter expected in Georgia and adjacent states.

The "wedge" weather pattern.

The "wedge" weather pattern is a CAD

Cold Air Damming weather events are nicknamed the wedge.

2015 El Nino on MEI close to 1997 and 1982 etc. but with differences.

El Nino holds but each has its own flavor for winter

A strong El Nino but will probably peak before the heart of winter.

El Nino latest

El Nino projection into next summer

The latest suite of models keeps El Nino strong.

Additional rainfall next 36 hours WPC.

Heaviest rain stays away from Atlanta

Disastrous flooding for South Carolina avoids Georgia, nice spell of weather ahead.

Height level 10,000 feet with temps and relative humidity, note the rare closed low in the Southeast states.

Dry at times but flooding risk remains

Rare weather pattern brings flooding especially east of Atlanta.

Current best match El Nino analog years.

El Nino update and winter

The El Nino continues to be strong but may weaken during winter months.

Temperature departure from normal for summer months.

Review of Summer weather that was

Meteorological summer in Atlanta June-August was not too far from normal on average.

The American Climate Forecast System model autumn weather anomaly projections.

Autumn weather outlook

Back and forth up and down but no long-lasting extremes, much like summer.

Comparing 2015 El Nino to others of similar measure: note list is inverse so 1997 is closest followed by 1991 etc. to 1957. Using other measures would change the order or even add or drop years from this list.

King Kong or Godzilla Monster El Nino

There is a "monster" El Nino and it can only mean one thing, right? Wrong.

SST vary daily. Weekly and monthly levels and trends are more important.

El Nino weather update

El Nino moderate to very strong depending on method used to measure.

Average precipitation for all winter El Nino events.

El Nino impacts differ

The weather impact of El Nino differs from event to event.

But no two El Nino winters or summers are alike, other factors come into play.

Record El Nino or New Ice Age

Lots of Buzz about a "Super El Nino" and "Ice Age by 2040"

Not a lot of extreme heat in past July El Nino years, cooler trends in green.

Not run of the mill summer weather

Abnormal weather for July but not for El Nino summer.

The reason for giving what the chance of a thunderstorm is, but the chance can change so check for updates through the day and throughout the week.

Not all that's scattered is equal

Thunderstorms...isolated scattered smothered or covered?

Hit and miss "popcorn" thunderstorms in summer heat and humidity are random and chaotic, different every hour and every day. Forecasts valid only about 4 hours at a time.

How summer weather works in the south

A guest blog about how summer weather and forecasts work here.

Umbrella only needs to be on standby, available but not carried MOST days in summer.

Don't ask

Stop asking weather people exactly when it will rain at your house, a guest blog post.

NOAA hurricane season outlook 2015.

Hurricane season outlook: quiet not always good

Forecasters generally agree tropical storms will be fewer this season than long-term average, but it only takes one.

Jamstec model summer temperature anomaly forecast.

Summer long-range weather outlook

"The summer wind, came blowin' in..." The summer outlook.

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