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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Drought has firm grip on Georgia

31% of the state is under Severe or worse drought conditions now.

Analog based autumn outlook, but analogs could change.

All too early look at the coming winter

It's too early to take a stab at a winter outlook, but here's a first look.

Hermine close tracking chart.

Hermine Tropical Cyclone number 9

Monitoring progress of Hermine, tropical cyclone number Nine.

The forecast uncertainty cone is based on past performance not specific to the storm occuring.

A look at tropical cyclone season

Peak tropical storm and hurricane season September/October.

Rainfall amounts needed to eliminate drought.

Drought continues despite scattered showers and storms

Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms still not a drought buster.

By mid week you can see how the Canadian model sees the 5,000 foot low pressure circulation over the SE USA. Shows the 850mb height level, wind flow, and vorticity.

Pattern flip to less hot more humid and wetter

A complete reversal of the wind patterns that brought drought and heat commencing.

Rainfall needed to eradicate drought continues to grow in many areas of Georgia.

Drought deepens, hit or miss storms not enough

The hit or miss feast or famine storms not enough to balance heat so drought worsens.

1-3 day average rainfall forecast amounts from WPC.

At least normal rain chances continue, so does drought

We may not yet be putting a dent in the drought, but at least it's not worsening-- for now.

Heat ridge depiction forecast from American model.

Long, hot summer of our discomfort

The lack of rain lets dry soils help make for a hotter summer.

Rain Tuesday June 28th: heavy in spots, but mostly light, with more misses than hits.

Georgia drought update, been dry since winter ended

We saw above-normal precipitation in winter, but ever since it has been dry for almost 5 months.

Severe drought now in much of the Atlanta area.

As feared drought in Georgia worsens

As I feared in my blog back in May and on June 2 and 9 drought deepens in Georgia.

Severe drought NW Georgia abnormally dry south Atlanta, moderate drought much of Atlanta and rest of north GA.

Drought in much of Georgia

Drought continues to plague crops lawns and other plants without irrigation.

Low grade short-term drought in parts of Georgia.

Incipient drought in Georgia

Scattered thunderstorms welcome to stave off drought in Georgia.

Analog based summer temperture departure from normal.

Outlook for Summer

Definitely not expected to be a cool summer, but not brutally hot either (June-August average)

North American Ensemble temp projection.

Summer preview

After the recent cool spell, mother nature turns up the heat

Multi model suite forecast of ENSO.

Preliminary summer weather outlook

Early odds have this summer in Georgia being normal to warmer than normal with near normal rainfall.

GFS low temperature estimate morning of 4/9/16

Frost or freeze this weekend

After patchy light frost Sunday and Monday, an even colder air mass targets this weekend.

Estimated rainfall totals next 24 hours.

Unsettled end of the week

Unstable weather lingers but improvement for the weekend.

2-day rainfall estimate totals since rain began ending by Saturday AM.

48 hours of changeable weather risks

24-36 hours of unsettled and changeable weather with some risks.

Thursday surface weather map.

Heavy weather Thursday-Friday

A slow moving low pressure and frontal system brings weather risks Thursday-Friday.

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