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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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The American Climate Forecast System model autumn weather anomaly projections.

Autumn weather outlook

Back and forth up and down but no long-lasting extremes, much like summer.

Comparing 2015 El Nino to others of similar measure: note list is inverse so 1997 is closest followed by 1991 etc. to 1957. Using other measures would change the order or even add or drop years from this list.

King Kong or Godzilla Monster El Nino

There is a "monster" El Nino and it can only mean one thing, right? Wrong.

SST vary daily. Weekly and monthly levels and trends are more important.

El Nino weather update

El Nino moderate to very strong depending on method used to measure.

Average precipitation for all winter El Nino events.

El Nino impacts differ

The weather impact of El Nino differs from event to event.

But no two El Nino winters or summers are alike, other factors come into play.

Record El Nino or New Ice Age

Lots of Buzz about a "Super El Nino" and "Ice Age by 2040"

Not a lot of extreme heat in past July El Nino years, cooler trends in green.

Not run of the mill summer weather

Abnormal weather for July but not for El Nino summer.

The reason for giving what the chance of a thunderstorm is, but the chance can change so check for updates through the day and throughout the week.

Not all that's scattered is equal

Thunderstorms...isolated scattered smothered or covered?

Hit and miss "popcorn" thunderstorms in summer heat and humidity are random and chaotic, different every hour and every day. Forecasts valid only about 4 hours at a time.

How summer weather works in the south

A guest blog about how summer weather and forecasts work here.

Umbrella only needs to be on standby, available but not carried MOST days in summer.

Don't ask

Stop asking weather people exactly when it will rain at your house, a guest blog post.

NOAA hurricane season outlook 2015.

Hurricane season outlook: quiet not always good

Forecasters generally agree tropical storms will be fewer this season than long-term average, but it only takes one.

Jamstec model summer temperature anomaly forecast.

Summer long-range weather outlook

"The summer wind, came blowin' in..." The summer outlook.

Model probability of +ENSO conditions in primary central Pacific region from IRI over various 3-month periods.

El Nino Advisory

El Nino that started in winter continues and forecast to strengthen.

It is rare to have the lines (possible outcomes) very close together especially as you go further out in time the closer the lines the more likely the forecast will be right, as they diverge the more gray the future outcome.

Weather lines of chaos

Ensemble forecasting is the application of Chaos Theory. Weather lines of chaos shown by models.

The structure of the atmosphere determines what storms look like on radar and their threat level. If you can hear thunder you are in danger of being struck by lightning even if you don't see any. Thunder roars go indoors. Thanks WGN-TV Chicago for graphics.

Thunderstorm tips

Hail season and tornado season go hand in hand. Here are some T-storm tips.

Storm Prediction Center graphic

Tornado season sleeps

3 year trend of low/slow tornado season starts continues, for now.

+PNA pattern Ridge West Trough East to develop to end week into weekend resulting in return of below average temps.

Frost threat this weekend

Spring chill sharp but not long lasting.

March-May temperature departure forecast based on expected global sea-surface temps.

Spring weather outlook

Temperatures expected to bounce back and forth more than usual for spring and slightly wet on average.

Another quiet start to tornado season.

What severe weather?

Severe weather, what severe weather, we dont need no stinking severe weather.

Winter temp departure from normal

The winter that was 2014-2015

Meteorological winter is December 1-March 1. In Atlanta it was slightly wetter than normal and slightly colder than normal.

Milder weather ahead

From unseasonably warm to unseasonably cold and back again.

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