AUGUST 27TH

August 24th: FAY tropical depression stalls out weakening to remant low may finally bring beneficial rain (too much?) to North Georgia including Lake Lanier basin during the next 2-5 days. Still watching for GUSTAV to form as I first warned you Friday morning on Atlantas Morning News might happen the next threat to the SE USA, East Coast more likely but Gulf is possible. ACTIVE tropics next 3 weeks.

JULY 17TH: RANDOM NOTES from the AMS DENVER CONFERENCE...the following are quotes from professional presentors at the conference: a good site on climate change www.aip.org/history/climate. 53% of AMS seal holding members disagree with the AMS Climate Statement. 78% of those blame urbanization. From 1950 to the present there has been an 8.2 million increase in the U.S. population adding to the impact of expected 50 year weather extremes. 40% of our $10 trillion economy is affected by climate and weather events annually and the weather variablility can produce year to year swings in the nations economy of plus or minus 100 billion. Weather forecast services save U.S. agriculture alone $820 million a year. Climate models are verified against the past and current climate to give real-world testing down to the season. Projections for the future are run with and without the fingerprint of human activity, with and without changes in the sun and volcanoes inorder to see the signals of each and all. Due to uncertainty projections give a range of future outcomes not just a single sky is falling projection or everything will be ok projection. There are differing levels of confidence in various ranges. Half of all CO2 emissions have taken place since 1983, 75% since 1961. It takes 1000s of years for CO2 to leave the atmosphere naturally. Even some former skeptics now believe in GW. Scientists who believe in man-made global warming do NOT believe they have all the answers or understand everything. The "Al Gore" sea level rises are NUTS, and the gulf stream is not going to suddenly stop or reverse, though it could change over the next 50,000 years, the projected sea level rise of scientists is over the course of 100 years about 12 inches. Model projections of Arctic sea ice at the end of the century range from near zero ice to little change. There is not an "even split" among scientists on global warming, there is a worldwide consensus not a sharp divide. The latest IPCC used 72% new scientists who were not in previous reports-- from 130 countries and 800 authors using 15 different GCMs Global Circulation Models which are upgraded every 5 years. The data used is a synergy of different types and platforms of climate data, not weather observations affected by instrument site problems like the urban heat island, multiple methods and labs worldwide give confidence in the data. We've had reliable data on the suns solar irradiance only since 1979. The suns variability in sunspot cycle accounts for less than a tenth of a degree and 0.1% in solar output, the question of the sun in global warming is covered in chapter 2 of the IPPC. The U.S. National Security Agency NSA and the Pentagon now accept the IPCC findings. The its a hoax/scam crowd is NUTS. There has been a 1 degree F rise in ocean temps and 4% increase in water vapor in the air. There is now 40 times more precipitation globally, when it rains or snows it does so harder. Climate does change over time and if its slow enough can sometimes be adapted to...in the 1800s orange trees were common in SC, Southern AL and South GA due to natural climate change they're gone now. The affect of urbanization is responsible for just .06 degree C of observed global warming. There has been a recent 18 month global cooling in conjuntion with the LA Nina event. More than half of the U.S. population now lives in a coastal community increasing our vulnerability. Precipitation reduces voter turnout one-half to 1%. The first routine tornado warnings started in 1960. The false alarm ratio for tornadoes on doppler radar is almost 80%, thats the bad news. BUT the good news is the detection rate is just over 70%. Hurricane track forecast errors half been cut in half since 1990! But we still stink at forecasting intensity, no progress has been made. OVER warning in coastal areas is now a necessity because development has lead to population intensity evacuation times which exceed forecast accuracy. Where a hurricane warning is in effect, it means hurricane winds are expected WITHIN the warning area NOT everywhere in the warning. The typical hur watch is 490 miles long, a warning 417 miles long. At any point, such as your condo in a watch the probability of hurricane winds is 20% in a warning its 25% or 1 out of 4. In the "cone of error" for a forecast hurricane track the odds are equal at any given point within the margin of error.

JUNE 5:Tropics quiet down, no longer a concern. NONE of the computer models show any development next 10 days. 100 degree high temps outside of the ATL next 5 days.

June 1st: Today marks the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and "meteorological summer" June-August, and right on que Atlanta has some real summertime weather for the next 10-15 days. We also have to keep a sharp eye on the remnants of Arthur which could regenerate and threaten the Gulf Coast by next weekend, not good news for Oil prices, but could aid drought relief in parts of the SE USA.

May 30th The severe weather season is peaking now and the number and intensity of severe storms in Atlanta normally declines steadily at a good pace from here through Summer. This MAY has seen the greatest number of tornadoes in the nation in any single month since 1950 with 480, typical of LA NINA. The last very active months were June of 1992 and May of 2003. A taste of Summer weather on the way to Georgia the next 10 days or so.

May 28th: Tropical trouble brewing? Signs that the hurricane season may get going early or right on time with something worth watching in the NW Caribbean-SW Gulf this weekend or beyond. Stay tuned.

May 22nd: My SUMMER OUTLOOK FOR GEORGIA...temps near-average to slightly cooler than normal with rainfall near-average to slightly above-normal. My PRELIMINARY HURRICANE season outlook 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major with 3 hits on the USA. #1 target Carolinas northward, #2 South and East FLA, #3 Gulf Coast. My outlooks are based on winter to May weather and ocean temp patterns in the Atlantic and the expectation of neutral to weak La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean this Summer. If the Pacific signal turns out different than I expect or some new development overwhelms the ENSO signal then these outlooks will fail. Some of the analog years I am using include 1985, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2003 amoung others and they suggest a cooler and wetter Summer than my outlook because I have adjusted for decadal trends and initial dry soils.

MAY 24th: 2008 first time in a decade to hit 100 tornado deaths in the nation and only the 3rd time in 30 years with that many, 60% of deaths in mobile homes or cars/trucks. If you are a weather hobbyist or fan and want to help the National Weather Service gather rainfall data, go to their web site and signup for the cocorahs program.

MAY 12: "Gustnadoes" with the "Dehrecho" target Georgia and South Metro Atlanta Sunday Morning. Nobody else will probably be this specific and precise in telling you what it was, but whoop there it is. I am sure the newspapers won't cover it, nor TV, so I thought I should mention it. We covered it today on Atlantas Morning News. You can google the terms or go to the Storm Pediction Center website to read more.

More changeable weather for the month of May, more temp swings to come. Bad news for the price of everything, as the corn and soybean planting is way behind schedule due to bad weather in the Midwest and it looks like more stormy and cold weather this month. USDA reports only 28% of the corn crop is in compared to a normal 76% by now.

April 17th: The very early look at the coming Summer in Georgia indicates close to normal or average temps and rainfall, with a slight tilt toward slightly cooler and wetter. Even an average or normal Summer will not help us get out of the drought in soil moisture, river flow and lake levels. But it's obviously better than a hot and dry outlook. But it's early and later outlooks could change. My PRELIMINARY HURRICANE forecast is lower than most experts: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 4 of those major Cat 3 or higher. I estimate 2 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes will strike the USA. I do not yet have an estimate as to where. I have not seen anyone demonstrate skill in predicting where storms will make landfall in seasonal forecasts. Also note, that April hurricane outlooks have LOW skill. The June updates are much better.

April 13: Our latest taste of winter was first mentioned in my blog March 26th with changes made on the 2nd and April 8th. Reluctant springs are a comon feature of La Nina. After the cold snap a 10-15 day warm spell will ensue. Last year The Masters had record cold on the final day. We know what kind of Summer followed. This year the cold wave is just a few days later. Record lows are occuring in April in Georgia the last 30 years about 3 times the normal pace of the last 125 years. Average would be one record low every 4 years. So in the last 3 decades that would mean about 8 records, instead Augusta has seen 20 record lows in April. There is a consensus that the current La Nina, though weakening, will last the Summer and maybe even into next winter.

April 8: Wow, if first glance at the GFS is right, the next 10 days will be wild, including a major cold snap and a need to watch for flakes.

April 2nd: I no longer see the big cold snap coming, I'll let you know if I see it again, there may yet be a last one this month, but the next 15 days look to average warmer than normal, despite some swings. Still looks like another month of improvement in the drought. The date of the average last freeze in Atlanta is April 5th.

March 26: More good news for the drought. Its largely gone in South GA and South AL, FLA Pan Handle, so less need for our lake water. My long-term outlook is also good news for the drought. The weather AVERAGE over the next 60 Days in Georgia looks average in temps and precip. But beware of near-nomal, for often nature will get to average by swinging back and forth between above and below for days or a week. It does look like another big cold snap brewing after April 5th-ish. A hard freeze and flakes could both be seen again. I think around or after Tax Day the pattern of the past 4-5 months begins to shift toward a more stable warmer drier pattern, with May featuring less severe weather and above-normal temps and near-average to slightly above-average rainfall following Aprils slight cool/wet bias. The EARLY LINE on Summer in North Georgia is for temps a little warmer than average and rainfall near-normal to a bit above. This is all based largely on my analysis that the LA NINA will be moderate for Spring and weak for Summer. This will have to be monitored and updated as needed.

March 22: Looks like volitle temp pattern continues thru first week of April.

March 21st: NWS survey team adds Butts county EF0 tornado to Saturdays count, bringing Metro total to 2. See their website for details.

March 18th: Some wild things are being depicted by some of the computer models for early next week. It bears watching. I'd say more but I dont want to hype something when the various models are all over the place. I'll write more as soon as I can discern what, if anything, its going to be.

MARCH 17TH: TORNADO SEASON IS HERE, lasts into June. The general weather pattern across the country of the past 4 months looks to continue into the first week or two of April. Active storms and big temp swings. There is a storm sequence in the jet stream pipeline shown in sat imagery from the mountains of Russia/Asia to the USA. So we are not out of the woods from a hard freeze yet. And expect more strong storms and volitile temp changes...one Wed/Thur of this week and again somewhere in the March 22-25th range, and more to come heading through the early days of April. The NWS says there were only 2 tornadoes in Metro Atlanta Saturday, an EF2 tracked thru Polk, FLoyd and Bartow and an EF0 in Butts. It's on their website if you don't believe me. Doppler radars do not see tornadoes, they detect rotations that can indicate them. We can only confirm a tornado on the ground with an eyewitness, not with radar, of after the fact with a pro storm survey team. You should still listen to the warnings and safety advice and heed the weather bulletins issued by the weather service. It is a myth that tornadoes don't hit downtowns or that major city areas are less at risk for tornadoes. It only seems that way because more of the country is rural and suburban than city. If we were populated the other way around, there would be a myth that rural areas are less likely to be hit. Salt Lake City, Dallas, Fort Worth, Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Saint Louis, Nashville, Miami, and New York are just some of the major cities hit by twisters. Rivers, lakes, hills, and mountains do not protect against tornadoes either, just another myth. On the Friday Night tornado last week and the week before I give a BIG HATS OFF to the Atlanta National Weather Service in Peachtree City for issuing timely warnings in a situation where storms developed quickly out of the blue, and without any prior tornado watch. Great work! It is unfortunately quite normal for there to be only short warning of a tornado. In this case without the alertness and vigilance of the NWS there would have been no warning. I congratulate them on doing all that can be expected given the state of the science and the fickle nature of twisters. The reason there was no watch issued in both cases was because the atmospheric setup in both cases was too marginal to justify a watch. Indeed the storms that popped up on that first Friday night only affected a very small percentage of the metro area. Storm coverage the Friday night of the downtown tornado was also a small percentage of the Atlanta area. Watches were issued Saturday when the coverage of severe storms was much greater. But here's a major point... WHAT IF there had been a tornado watch issued the typical 2-4 hours before the first warning? The Georgia Dome still would have been full of basketball fans. Why? Because people don't do what they're supposed to until they feel imminently and personally in danger by the weather. And what if they were told of the warning, would they stampede in panic causing injury and death? Would they run outside into the teeth of the storm to be hit by debris? Is there a safe place for 10,000 fans elsewhere in the Dome? Saturday for example, BEFORE any tornado warnings, a Tornado Watch WAS in effect. But the highways were packed like the forecast was partly sunny. And the malls and movie theaters were packed as well. (two of the worst places to be in a tornado, along with gymnasiums or big box stores) And the airplanes at Hartsfield were full of people sitting on the runways and taxiways like sitting ducks even as the storms were moving toward the airport. A watch means conditions are favorable and storms may develop with little or no warning. A watch does not mean go shopping, to the movies, or to the ball game or carry on with life as usual!! Scroll down if you want to learn about a "worst-case" scenario for a tornado in Atlanta. I posted this research a year ago. In short, a violent tornado on the ground in the heart of Atlanta could mean THOUSANDS of deaths and THOUSANDS of injuries and 20-40 BILLION dollars damage.

March 15: Now that the data is in for the past 3 months I can grade my winter forecast for North Georgia issued Dec 1. I get an A+ for the temp forecast and an A for the precip forecast, but a C+/D- for the snowfall forecast. At Hartsfield the winter was 2 degrees warmer than average exactly as predicted. Precip was 8% below average. I was off by just 10%. Snow was below normal as forecast, but was more than I expected. A trace of snow fell in Dec., 1.2 inches in Jan., and a trace in Feb and March. I was also right about 80 degrees and severe weather in winter, both happened. The forecast was issued Dec 1st.

March 8: If you didn't get 7 days notice of this severe weather and snow system then you get your weather from the wrong place. I first mentioned this big ticket threat on Feb 28th. Except for a few places in the NW Mountains the accumulations will be slight and will melt away.

March 7th: I am still sick, so this will be brief. 1-3 inches of snow possible in parts of the GA mountains, some snow may be seen at times even in the South Suburbs of Atlanta tomorrow. Except for a few mountain spots mainly NW, it doesnt matter if even an inch or so of snow fell in Atlanta which is not yet expected, the roads are so warm they would be wet with the "accumulation" on roof tops, car tops, grass, decks, trees. The main area is north of a line from Cedartown to Tocoaa. So even a worst case scenario which I am not forecasting would be a non-event on a Saturday. This is mainly an AL/TN/MS/LA event.

March 6: SPRING OUTLOOK FOR GEORGIA: March, April, May look for temps to average near-normal with lots of back and forth especially March, Spring rainfall normal to 10% dry. PRELIMINARY SUMMER OUTLOOK June, July, August for GEORGIA...temps near-average with rainfall near-normal.

March 1st: Buckle up! Our weather will continue this month to have the volatility of the stock market. More relief from the drought, but more risks of severe weather and or snow showers or flurries. First system of note is Tuesday-Wednesday, then again Friday-Saturday. On first system looks like highest severe risk is top end Perimeter South and any snow would not be significant with warm ground. Best snow West of us. I dont have to say things could change because you know that by now or you're hopeless. Looks like a reluctant Spring, March may even declare war on Spring. Analogs include 1950, 1975 and 1999.

Feb 28: "Big Ticket" weather items on the table, major rain/severe/snow systems a risk for GA or nearbye March 3-5 and again around March 7-9. The upside is the drought continues to back off and some preliminary looks at the rest of Spring and Summer also look hopeful in that regard. The next big system is still over the Pacific Ocean so you can see why details cant be given yet. One global model sends the low to Indianapolis and another to Columbus GA, not quite a consensus.

Feb 27: It amazes me when people call the radio station shocked that something is happening in the weather, like snow flurries, that I mentioned in my forecast the morning before or even two days earlier when nobody else mentioned it. I guess too many people watch TV or listen to FM radio when they could know what their neighbor doesn't if they listen to News/Talk 750 WSB AM. NOT all forecasts and forecasters are the same, pass the word. :) We have been getting a BIG storm system roughly every 9 days now and I think this will continue the next 2-3 weeks as Sat data shows a sequence of cyclones across the Pacific from the Japan Trench. The DGEX model shows a significant snow for AL/TN/GA/FL next week. I will keep an eye out for any other support for this. I think it's more likely to track further North and give us another big warm-up and risk of severe weather. Stay tuned as they dont give me enough time on-air to go over things like this in every report I give. I get 20 seconds, traffic gets 3-4 people each taking that much time.

Feb 25: From Spring to Winter and back again. By Tuesday Night there could be some curiosity snow flurries in Atlanta. In fact, the GFS model shows a dusting in the mountains and the NAM model shows almost an inch in spots of the mountains and a dusting as far South as Cherokee County. I suspect that even IF that "amount" fell from the clouds--an inch or less it would melt on contact so as not to matter. Looks ify that it even happens anyway.

Feb 20: Look out below! All signs point to more wet, stormy, changeable weather the rest of this month and March. Spring and Winter continue to battle spelling wild weather for much of the USA the next 30-45 days! Of course, if you read here regularlly you know I've been beating this drum for months now!

Feb 11: An active jet stream storm pattern the rest of the month with 2-3 precip chances every 10 days and stock market-like up and downs in temps. Good news is I am still calling for near-average precip the next 60 days not very dry. The up and down back and forth changeable and active storm pattern we've been in will probably continue in March.

Feb 9th: Check out this site on Southern Tornadoes http://niu.edu/PubAffairs/RELEASES/2008/feb/tornado.shtml Deadliest February tornado oubreak since 1971--before doppler radar. This storm system of rare winter intensity (heck it would be big even for Spring!) included a "tornado swarm" of more than 68 reported twisters and 340 severe weather warning reports in a multi-state area in its warm sector with storm tops 11 miles high and 10-21 inches of thunder-snow with whiteout conditions in its cold sector. The storm was fueled by an 84 degree north to south temp contrast baroclinic zone from below zero in North Dakota to the 80s in Mississippi generating a powerful 120 mph jet stream between the contrasting air masses producing the divergence aloft or upward motion of air, the "lift" needed to generate a big low pressure and frontal system. Where the contrast between cold dry air and warm moist air is greatest thunderstorms form and where winds of differing speed and direction collide to cause wind shear the storm motions twist cyclonically and rotation leads to tornadoes. Luckily, as I forecast the air mass and wind shear over Metro Atlanta was much less than to our North and West saving us from a similar fate.

Feb 3: In the 1950s the DuPont Company was one of the first to hire meteorologists to help with business and shore-up profits and safety. Now thanks to climate change, the editor of FASHION WEEK says the clothing industry is having to adapt to the fact that globally on average there is no longer a strong difference between summer and winter, certainly not enough or long enough for fashion lines. "We're selling bikinis in January and fur coats in August. It's bonkers."-- Designer Katherine Hamnett. So designers are predicting layered and multiseasonal clothing will soon be in vogue because consumer demand for warm clothes is shrinking. Liz Clibourne Inc., Target, and Kohl's have even hired meteorologists to help them prepare future collections.

Jan 28: Very active storm pattern with up and down temps the next 3 weeks. After Feb 10 Old Man Winter may show up again. Looks like March and April will be interesting also. Rainfall so far this year has been half of whats normal or average. 30-DAY OUTLOOK for Georgia for FEBRUARY temps to average above-normal with rainfall near-average.

January 11th: Glad I was right about the tornadoes staying in AL and the system being weaker for Atlanta. Northern Hemisphere pattern changes and global models hinting at a gradual return to winter the rest of the month with at least two chances for some snow or ice around the 20th give or take a few days and around the 24th give or take a few days. But then big time warm returns by around Valentines Day. Stay tuned.

January 8/9th End of the solar minimum has arrived as NASA reports the start of solar cycle 24 a more active sunspot cycle in the years ahead. I am not forecasting it yet but the GFS and DGEX models suggest some snow early next week after our January taste of April. GFS shows coldest air of the season in the 15 day projection. I'll wait and see for now. Risk of severe weather Thursday afternoon and night. The 90-DAY OUTLOOK for North Georgia calls for precipitation to average near-normal and temps to average above-normal.

December 6th: What could go wrong with my long-range forecast for Winter in North Georgia? Many things: no two La Nina seasons are ever alike. Plus, the recorded data base of La Nina years is small, dating reliably only back to 1950, such a small sample size makes confidence limited. Also, the La Nina could end up being much stronger or weaker than I am currently expecting which would change things. And, non-La Nina factors might develop to overwhelm the La Nina signal. For example, something in the Arctic Stratosphere, or volcanoes, or sunspots, or the Atlantic Ocean resulting in a different type of winter from what I now envision. Last year for example we were expecting an El Nino winter, but the El Nino unexpectedly collapsed so the winter did not follow a typical "El Nino Script". In recent years some hurricane seasons have "gone off script" from past El Nino-La Nina history do to other unexpected factors. Mother Nature is like that! My Winter Outlook is based on my best current assessment of current and future conditions related to our being in a sunspot minimum, the recent hurricane season, negative QBO, negative GLAAM, positive IOD, neutral NAO/AO, SOI, MJO, positive AMO, negative PNA, Negative PDO, NH snow cover. It is weighted heavily toward primary analogs for a moderate La Nina winter with matching 2007 Sept/Oct/Nov temp and precip patterns. MY WINTER OUTLOOK DECEMBER-FEBRUARY for the ATLANTA AREA...a 70% chance of being warmer than average by about 2F with a 60% chance of precipitation below-average by about 2.5 inches or about 18%. Snowfall, if any, less than one inch. Only a 40% chance of over an inch. 65% of the winter days temps averaging above normal, cold snaps will be few and not long lived but continue into March or April for a delayed Spring. Some past La Nina winters had 3 inches of snow but 63% had little or none. There's an outside chance of 80 degrees and severe weather, but a pattern change results in a late Spring. The drought continues into April. Primary analogue years: 1947, 48, 49, 50, 54, 55, 56, 64, 70, 73, 74, 75, 83, 84, 88, 95, 98, 99, 00, and 05.

WINTER 2007-08 PRECIPITATION

WINTER 2007-08 RAIN AND SNOW

WINTER 2007-08 TEMPERATURES

November 30th: HURRICANE SEASON 2007 is now in the history books: There were 14 named storms (13 if we ignore preseason subtropical Andrea) that's 3-4 above normal. There were 6 hurricanes. Exactly normal. 2 were major, again exactly average. Way back in May I predicted 14 names, at the start of August I lowered that to 11. There were 3 named storm hits on the USA plus one un-named depression hit. 3 were tropical storms, 1 was a hurricane. Another, Noel gave hurricane force winds to Cape Cod MA north to Canada but had "lost" its name at the time. For the first time in recorded history there were two cat 5 hurricanes in the same season, they hit Mexico/Central America. In an average year the USA gets 2 hurricane hits, this year we had one.

November 26th: Another COLD WAVE in about 11 days but the 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NORTH GEORGIA November 26th-December 26th is for temps to average above-normal with rainfall above-normal.

November 24th: Atlanta's drought dates back to at least last Fall, but in 2004 and 2005 flooding was a problem as tropical systems Cindy, Frances, Ivan, and Jeane brought heavy rains to the area. Atlanta's driest year since 1879 was 1954 when just 31.8 inches of rain fell compared to the average of 50.2 inches.

November 14th RAINFALL NEEDS: It will take 3 inches of rain just to hold lakes and streams steady and 4-6 inches of rain to get a decent rise in levels. And this is rain over the drainage basin not 285.

November 12th: The 30-DAY OUTLOOK November 12-December 12th in Georgia calls for temps to average near-normal with rainfall below-average.

November 4th: Not just dry Summers, but winters in North Georgia when we get much of our annual rainfall have also been dry. In the last decade of the 1990s 3 winters were wet and 7 were drier than normal and so far since 2000 3 wet and 6 dry winters! See what LA NINA does to weather on average in maps below.

October 22ND: DROUGHT gets no respect as a weather emergency compared to tornadoes and hurricanes because it is a SLOW MOTION disaster. But if the authorities in charge had been doing their jobs, it would be no surprise--something we suddenly must do something about. It should not have sneaked up on anyone. Since 1950 only 30% of years have been wet, 70% of all years were normal or drier than normal. That's right, not just Summer, but entire years. Since 1990 almost half of all 68 SEASONS (3 month periods) were dry. Since 1960 51% of our Summers have been dry. The last decade to have wet Summers was the 1960s. The 1950s Summers were 70% dry and last decade 70% of our Summers were drier than normal. 2000-2007 half of our Summers have been dry. Cloud seeding the answer to our drought? NO, not likely. The scientific evidence for effective cloud seeding to enhance rain indicates only 10% increases and then only of certain types of mountain induced clouds, some others show some statistical impact but not much. Given we have few clouds than even normal during the drought and the high cost factor, the AMS recommends weather modification to enhance rain only as part of annual water management programs mainly for mountain areas of the Western USA. Do a web search if you want to learn more.

NOAA/NWS has issued their official WINTER FORECAST, for North Georgia they project a 73% chance of warmer than normal, for precip they project a 66% chance of drier than normal. They seem to only use La Nina as the basis of their outlook.

"Warm dry winter" NO safe bet. You have heard and read, including here, that we have a LA NINA and this points to a mild and dry winter here in GA, and for that matter, much of the country. Most La Nina winters are warmer and drier in Southeast Georgia than North Georgia. When I wrote the SINGLE LINE about it (see below) many weeks ago, I said "could" not WILL. That is just the historical AVERAGE of all past La Nina winters. However, like everything else in weather, no two La Ninas are ever alike. In fact one type of La Nina is warm and dry, the other is colder and wetter. Its not certain yet if this will be a La Nina WEST or La Nina EAST type. And the La Nina is just ONE of many many factors that will influence the fall and coming winter weather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I normally make my first estimate of winter in late October, with the final call in early December, before the official start of winter.

In weather forecasting there are over 43 numerical equation computer models and they all have different solutions for the future.

If you haven't read my essay on global climate change I hope you will. Also for recommended reading: "The science and politics of global climate change, a guide to the debate" by Dessler and Parson. "Global Warming, understanding the forecast", by David Archer. "The economics of climate change, the Stern review", by Nicholas Stern. Critique of the Stern Report by Richard Tol. "The Honest Broker, making sense of science in policy and politics" by Roger Pielke Jr. OR check out these web links online: www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/debate/somerville.html or you can help find answers at climateprediction.net.

HURRICANE SEASON last year was near-normal with 9 Atlantic storms, 5 hurricanes 2 of those major category but the strong ones stayed away from the USA with only a few hits on the East Coast costing billions of dollars in damage from NC to Canada. The long-term climate average or normal numbers are 10 storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major.

The 2007 Hurricane FORECAST from University College LONDON tropical storm risk group is calling for the Atlantic season to have a 65% chance of being above-normal with 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 being major. The London based group further predicts LANDFALL "somewhere" on the USA Mainland of 5 total storms...3 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes. Accuweather predicts 14 named storms 3 or more being major. They predict 6 or 7 storms will hit the USA 4 being hurricanes 1 or 2 major with the main target from the Mississippi River to Cape Hateras NC with a bulls eye on FLA. WeatherAmerica predicts 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major. WeatherRisk predicts 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 3 major. The season runs June 1st to November 30th.

MY 2007 HURRICANE SEASON ESTIMATE...There are indications that after a lull in land strikes last season, this year the threat will be up again for FL and adjacent areas of the SE USA from MS to NC, although any location is an option but with North of NC the lowest risk. I estimate for the GULF COAST 1 hurricane and 1 tropical storm hit. For the EAST COAST I estimate 1 tropical storm strike.

A report in the January edition of the Bulletin of the AMS on "urban tornadoes" in the USA states that simulations indicate a large violent tornado across a 10 km path through the City of Atlanta would impact around 150,000-195,000 residents costing 20-40 billion in damage and killing between an estimated 14,000 and 19,500 people in a worst case. Others dispute this and believe 130-630 people would be killed with anywhere from 2-10,000 injured enough to be sent to a hospital. The disagreement arrises from technical points of methodology and assumptions in making the calculations. The original researchers can only find reason to at best lower their death toll estimates to a range of 627-3,300 dead. Either way, it would make the Dunwoody tornado, Governors Mansion tornado, and downtown tornado look like a Sunday Pic Nik by comparison, and would overwhelm first responders and hospitals.

WHAT LOCAL TV NEWS does NOT want you to know: "street level" storm tracking and "neighborhood" Doppler weather radar just is not possible, it's not real and may be a dangerous gimmick according to an article in the most recent issue of the scientific journal National Weather Digest. There are inherent limits to radar and mapping systems that make impossible the kind of precision implied when showing Doppler Radar. The paper said there are significant time and location errors in locating where radar shows a tornado, where it really is now and where it's going and the arrival times. Because this info can not be even close to exact the difference can put you in danger. Time of arrival errors of 20 minutes or more were not uncommon. Radar indicated tornado locations were in error an average of half a mile or more 63% of the time and off more than a full mile 40% of the time on average. When the storm is 80 miles or more away from the radar the location of the tornado was significantly wrong a half mile or more 80% of the time! The worst case off the mark path was off by 8 miles. So to be safe don't get caught up in the TV hype about tracking a tornado "right here near the intersection of such and such heading toward such and such around 7:20". That's show biz, not science. They may prefer to entertain you in severe weather, we prefer accurate information. To play it safe give yourself at least 4-8 or even 16 miles either side of a projected tornado path.

Tornado DEATH TRAPS...mobile homes, residents of mobile homes are 15 times more likely to die in a tornado than someone in a permanent home. See this link.

Although you need to take tornado warnings seriously and take cover to play it safe, remember just because someone on TV points to a colorful map and says the radar shows a tornado does not mean he's right, there is a high FALSE ALARM RATIO to detected rotation aloft and a real tornado on the ground. In other words typically 60% OR MORE of the time there is no twister. But it still could be a potentially dangerous storm.

REMEMBER THE STORM CENTER... keep in mind it does not matter if weather is the top story or if I am in the storm center, just because weather is the lead story in the news that does not mean I am predicting a bad storm or that a bad storm is imminent or a storm even exists, all that matters is what I actually say, what I forecast, only pay attention to that.

A key point in ice/snow "events" as we like to call them... weather forecasters try to predict the weather, we know what the air temp is now and what we forecast it to be later. We and you do NOT know what the pavement temp is now or will be later, NOT the temp of the major highway or the road in front of your house. Nor the temp of the trees or the power lines. Do you know the temp of the power line or tree near your house? How warm it got in the sun today? Neither do I, nor does anyone. In Pentagon/White House speak we don't have "metrics" for that! Our computer models model atmospheric physics, NOT the ground or trees or power lines! We cover the clouds and above the clouds below space and down toward earth. Keep that in mind, everyone can just take a crude guess at the ground, we just have to wait and see. Research papers have shown an error in our data of less than 1% can make the difference between just rain or significant snow. The odds of such an error or larger are obviously great.

In snow/ice/rain storm situations keep in mind, just a couple degrees will make a big difference, and 3-5 degrees is well within the NORMAL EXPECTED MARGIN OF ERROR for ANY forecast from ANY source even if its sunny! So things can change, and we often wont know until the last minute. The critical temp/thickness lines are only a pen line across a weather map (when I say along and north of a line from X to X) BUT the actual transition zone in nature can range from just a few miles wide to 50 or 75 miles wide and you don't know til it happens, nature doesn't just see our estimated line and say hey there's a magic brick wall in the sky.

Some El Nino WINTER stats credit to GAWX on web weather board... a snow or sleet event of 3 inches or more is about twice as likely for El Nino winters as for all other winters combined 35.1% vs. 17.3%. There seems to be a 77-81% chance of either snow/ice OR major cold or both and only a 20% chance of an uneventful winter! PEAK time periods from history are Jan 21-31st, Feb 11-20 or Feb 21-29th. More than half of the El Nino winter events were 2/21 or later. The last peak is March 11-20th.

Some fun facts on winter weather in ATLANTA... normal or average annual snowfall at Hartsfield Airport since 1929 is 2.2 inches. Since 1929 we have not gone more than 4 consecutive years with little or no snow, usually only 3. The last significant snow at the airport was 2.5 inches in Feb 3 years ago. So based on history we are due this winter OR next. The great blizzard or "Storm of the Century" March 1993 only gave Atlanta 4.2 inches of snow officially! Not even close to the 11 inches in the winter of 1935-36, 20 inches in the winter of 1940, or 10 inches in the winter of 1982-83! From 1929 to 1956 (27years) snow here was rare but very heavy when it happened. From 1957-72 (15years) light to moderate snows were common, then rare from 72-78. Then from 78-1993 (15years) moderate to heavy was fairly common again. From then to now the past 12 years its been 50-50, 6 years little or none 6 years with 2 inches or more. So snow is not as unusual here as we might think, but then again we can have 3 inches of snow fall but if it only sticks on the grass many of you act like it didn't happen because it only counts to you if you get out of work and school. But we don't forecast pavement temps-- only what will fall from the sky, keep that in mind!

WINTER

Winter 2006-07 averaged +3.4F with total precip 28% below average -3.79 inches, total official snow was just two-tenths of an inch falling as a trace of snow January 16, 17 and 31st and Feb 14th with 0.10 on Feb 1st. This is 2 inches of snow below-normal. December was warmest +4.7F and Feb was coldest -1.5F Jan was 50-50 first half warm and second half cold.

A note on HURRICANE SEASONS, even if the number of storms is double the average or 10 times above normal, every one of them could miss the USA! The number predicted is not the number to hit the USA. Data indicates that MOST of the time the more active seasons for number of storms have LESS land strikes on the USA than seasons closer to average! So if you hear a coming hurricane season is forecast to be very active or above-average it does not mean that all, most or even any will strike any USA coast. But if any ARE to hit, we can identify in advance the low medium and highest risk coastal areas before the start of the season, we just can't yet say for sure any will hit or if they will be bad or weak, and the number forecast is the number expected to form.

Its not the total number of tropical storms that develop that matters its if one or more bad ones hit land that counts. Since 1997 no year has had fewer than 12 storms form. Since 1995 we've been in a 30-year cycle of above average tropical seasons. Between 1971 and 1994 the average number of tropical storms and hurricanes was 9, but from 1995 to 2005 the average is 15 storms!

The 2005 hurricane season shattered just about every record that could be broken including most destructive and costliest in U.S. history Katrina, earliest season activity, most rapidly intensifying storm, most intense low pressure Wilma, record highest number of CAT 5 storms 4, earliest formed cat 5 on record near start of the season, only known cat 5 in July, most major hits in a single season beating 2004, most storms in a single season 28 old record 21 1933, record 13 hurricanes beating 1969s 12, highest storm surge in Atlantic/Gulf, first time two gulf hurricanes reach cat 5 in gulf in same season, strongest July hurricane, strongest gulf hurricane in July, most cyclones in July, most in June and July, earliest for the 4th storm and all those after, first V and W storms, first need for Greek alphabet to name, first tropical cyclone to hit Spain, farthest north and east of any tropical Atlantic storm, most tropical storms in November, and I think record late season storms. WHY? Global warming is not the sole cause. Natural cycles or ocean-atmosphere rhythms or mood swings or oscillations are at work such as the NAO,PDO, AMO, ENSO all associated with periods of anomalous warming and cooling of the water in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and/or gulf along with pressure and wind changes over the oceans, this results in spans of decades that are very active and very quiet. The total number of hurricanes globally has remained constant for many decades as there seems to be an equilibrium where if its very active in one part of the world another drops off. Research has shown the number of cat 4 and 5 storms has doubled over the past 35 years coinciding with an increase in ocean temps of about 1 degree F. The contribution of greenhouse effect global warming is probably an increase of just a few percent.

New tornado research from Bowling Green State University shows for all tornadoes the largest frequency occur when both the ENSO and the NAO are neutral. The smallest probabilities during positive ENSO and positive NAO. Total frequency decrease when both are negative. A positive ENSO El Nino and a negative NAO showed an increase in tornado probability especially in CO the Southern Plains and the Gulf coast. For the strongest tornadoes the negative ENSO La Nina and positive NAO the peak frequency over AL FL Pan and southern Georgia.

I have changed my mind on global warming, toward the belief that it is real, has and is occurring. Just not sure about causation nor how much can be expected in the future nor the results weather-wise. This is because more and more data from across a multitude of scientific fields are all seeing evidence of the same thing, not just climatologists. This tells me something real is happening even if a good portion is a natural cycle.

PAST ARCHIVE INFO: The "NORCROSS PRECIPITATION ANOMALY" linked to urbanization effects in the May Journal of Applied Meteorology...the amount of urban land in Atlanta increased 75% from 1973 to 1992. The largest increase in summer rainfall over the past 50 years of any SE site studied occurred in Norcross, GA. First 5 months of this year only 365 tornadoes nationwide, far below normal and only 5 deaths matching the lowest 5 month total recorded back in 1992. The cool summer and abnormal jet stream patterns are the reason.

Story from Newsweek magazine about a study in the Journal of Cataract and Refractive Surgery that weather can affect LASIK surgery. High humidity can cause the cornea to swell, affecting the surgeon's accuracy. The higher the humidity the more likely a patients is to come back for follow-up tweaks.

Ever wonder how stores know how much firewood to buy and when to put it out for sale? Or when to put away the winter stuff and put out the bbq supplies? There is more to "the weather business" than radio and TV. You probably are not aware that weather forecasters are hired for work in hundreds of types of business and industry and not just agriculture. Also, every branch of the military has its own meteorology units. It is estimated that at least 42% of the U.S. economy is climate sensitive and an even greater amount is short-term weather sensitive. That is why the private sector contains an estimated $500 million dollar commercial weather market. Your electric and gas companies want to know what the weather is going to be, so do Kroger and Publix and drug stores and department stores so they can plan ahead. So they hire a meteorologist or company as a consultant to give them private forecasts. When I am not on the radio I am working as a private meteorological consultant often giving more detail on long-range weather trends worldwide. Sometimes a decision maker merely needs to have a phone chat with me to clarify the forecast or get an email update. I often help police and fire depts. plan for severe weather. City and state governments need to plan for snow and ice or floods. Construction companies need to know when they can build a road or a house, landscapers need to know when they can work outdoors and how the planting and growing season will go, pa

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