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Forecasts
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Random storm season is here
It's that time of year again, now through September. The most difficult time of year to forecast the weather. Because the weather maps often don't change much day to day, yet the weather sometimes does.
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Summer 2012 forecast
The past three summers have been particularly hot. If the upper level jet stream ridge this summer sets up far enough to the West and is sharp enough, then the down stream trough would be strong enough to bring Atlanta a more run of the mill summer temperature-wise, and allow for periodic episodes of widespread thunderstorms. But this is a big IF that does not currently seem in the cards. So the early thinking on this summer is warmer and drier than average in Georgia.
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Another frost? Early hurricane season outlook
It is a rare thing to have a frost or freeze after tax deadline day in Georgia. But the American GFS model keeps showing we may have lows in the mid 30s to low 40s early next week. If it occurs with light wind and clear sky that could mean a light frost. I am not predicting it YET. All early signs point to a weak El Nino and that points to a less active hurricane season.
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60-day weather outlook
The temperature swings (cool and warm) over the next couple months look like they will balance out near-normal, rainfall also looks near-average to below-normal. Drought is expanding, increases odds of warmer than normal summer but as of now not expected to be as hot as last summer.
Mellish: Nor'easter hammers NY, PA
It's a bookend storm to a winter that saw a big record early snow in October; now a record snow in spring. A soaking rain will benefit the New England drought, but a wet snow falling on leafy trees with strong winds threaten power outages and tree damage in Pennsylvania ...
NOAA issues a rare severe weather advisory
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare high risk advisory for severe weather a day in advance, saying an area from Oklahoma City and Tulsa to Wichita, Kansas City and into Omaha may see large, violent, long-lasting tornadoes on Saturday Meteorologist Kirk Mellish ...
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Warning about tornado warnings
Let me give my initial reaction to the testing of new tornado warning language. It's an experiment being conducted the rest of this tornado season in MO and KS.
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Late frost or hot summer?
Late frost or hot summer? Birmingham NWS crunches some numbers. My summer forecast will be out by the end of May.
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Hot spring and summer?
Does the warm winter mean a hot summer? Does this warm start to March mean we just get hotter from here the rest of spring? These are the questions I am being asked everywhere I go.
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Understanding Doppler, weather warnings, and your safety
Doppler radar only fails to see 15% of tornadoes. But the false alarm rate is still around 70% because Doppler often cannot tell us which rotation will touchdown and which will not. Understanding how complex severe storms actually are and how this impacts the warnings can help keep you safe even if you've had warnings in the past where nothing happened to you.
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